[BostonCard]

Relevant quote from The NY Times article:

American officials say the warning shows that the weapons being sent are making a big difference on the battlefield. So, for Washington at least, concerns about supplying arms that Russia might consider “escalatory” have ebbed — as has the initial worry that Ukraine will use longer-range weapons, like jet fighters, to attack Moscow itself and set off a bigger war.

The most likely scenario is that Russia is bluffing and that they are powerless to do anything no matter what we give Ukraine. However, there has always been concern about tail risk, a low probability but high impact event. I think that threat recedes as the reality that we are fully arming Ukraine is a “fair accompli”, but it cannot be entirely ignored.

BC

[BostonCard]

Relevant quote from The NY Times article:

American officials say the warning shows that the weapons being sent are making a big difference on the battlefield. So, for Washington at least, concerns about supplying arms that Russia might consider “escalatory” have ebbed — as has the initial worry that Ukraine will use longer-range weapons, like jet fighters, to attack Moscow itself and set off a bigger war.

The most likely scenario is that Russia is bluffing and that they are powerless to do anything no matter what we give Ukraine. However, there has always been concern about tail risk, a low probability but high impact event. I think that threat recedes as the reality that we are fully arming Ukraine is a “fair accompli”, but it cannot be entirely ignored.

BC