[Treefence]

A few announcements are coming out this morning, it sounds like the Netherlands and Romania will now provide lethal aid to Ukraine, Netherlands will provide armored vehicles.  It sounds like Romania has some old stored T-72 tanks, for some reason Israel gave them those after capturing them in battle a long time ago.  Probably only a few will be usable, but at the very least could be used for parts.  It also sounds like factories in the Czechia (Czech Republic) will begin repairing Ukrainian tanks.  This poses an interesting issue, because they are a NATO country, so Russia likely won't risk attacking them, but might make some threats.

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It was also just reported that the US estimates Russia is down to 75% of what was assembled leading up to the war.  That's a combination of man power, armor and aircraft. That's a significant amount, and bordering on combat ineffective, however Russia of course will reconstitute units to maintain combat effectiveness, but it means they can only effectively attack a smaller area, likely why they pulled out of most of the northern parts of Ukraine.

Oryx has a good list of foreign aid here. They estimate the Netherlands APC will be YPR-765, an upgraded form of the M113 that the US is supplying.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/an...plied.html

Unless I'm misreading the list, everything from the US starts with "To Be Delivered". Have we not officially provided anything?

To this point, most of what the US had provided was smaller arms, javelins, and stingers.  In the most recent batch of aid, the US is providing armor, infantry vehicles and artillery, some of that has been delivered, but most updates are vague for obvious reasons.  I'd assume Oryx will do a clean update saying "delivered" once the US announces the next batch of aid, and says that "most" of the previous batches have been delivered.  

I believe the US and most other countries were hesitant to provide heavier armor, lethal aid, and such because they didn't want it to be lost in enemy hands (like recently in Afghanistan) and also worried about what might provoke Putin.  Ever since Bucha though, Ukraine has proven they can win this fight, and that they more than deserve just about everything they ask for.

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It was also just reported that the US estimates Russia is down to 75% of what was assembled leading up to the war.  That's a combination of man power, armor and aircraft. That's a significant amount, and bordering on combat ineffective,

By US standards, a unit with 25% losses would be considered combat ineffective. The Russian losses are however not evenly distributed. Some units suffered what appeared to be almost total destruction! It is therefore hard to say exactly what shape various units are in. Given the tendency to tell the higher ups what they want to hear, I suspect the Russian leaders don't know either.

however Russia of course will reconstitute units to maintain combat effectiveness, but it means they can only effectively attack a smaller area, likely why they pulled out of most of the northern parts of Ukraine.

Traditionally Russia has used its units up, not rebuilt them. What they will do now in terms of a replacement strategy I don't know, but a few weeks isn't enough to replace a lot of your strength and fight well. This is especially true in an Army that lacks NCOs to lead at the lower levels. If Russia can accurately determine which units are actually good to go, they can still operate effectively offensively. If they try to use fought out units that way, casualties can skyrocket.

That's interesting about them using units up.  I know Russian doctrine is very different from American, specifically they don't allow their NCO's to make decisions in combat situations, especially compared to western militaries.  From what I've heard, a lot of the more elite units, such as VDV, were hit particularly hard in the early days of the war, because they were mostly isolated, and working ahead of their main force.  It's hard to get a full idea of what the Ukrainian losses have been, but it seems they are not quite at the relative level as Russia.  They are also unlikely to experience morale issues to the same degree as Russians, so I'm really wondering if we can eventually see Ukraine pushing back, especially after this initial wave of Russian aggression.  A number I've heard often when you are attacking a defensive position, is needing a 3/1 advantage in man power.  If Ukrainians can hold a lot of key areas, and inflict heavy casualties to the Russians, all while many reserves and green units are being trained and armed by western aid, it really good turn into a humiliating defeat for Russia.

[Treefence]

A few announcements are coming out this morning, it sounds like the Netherlands and Romania will now provide lethal aid to Ukraine, Netherlands will provide armored vehicles.  It sounds like Romania has some old stored T-72 tanks, for some reason Israel gave them those after capturing them in battle a long time ago.  Probably only a few will be usable, but at the very least could be used for parts.  It also sounds like factories in the Czechia (Czech Republic) will begin repairing Ukrainian tanks.  This poses an interesting issue, because they are a NATO country, so Russia likely won't risk attacking them, but might make some threats.

---

It was also just reported that the US estimates Russia is down to 75% of what was assembled leading up to the war.  That's a combination of man power, armor and aircraft. That's a significant amount, and bordering on combat ineffective, however Russia of course will reconstitute units to maintain combat effectiveness, but it means they can only effectively attack a smaller area, likely why they pulled out of most of the northern parts of Ukraine.

Oryx has a good list of foreign aid here. They estimate the Netherlands APC will be YPR-765, an upgraded form of the M113 that the US is supplying.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/an...plied.html

Unless I'm misreading the list, everything from the US starts with "To Be Delivered". Have we not officially provided anything?

To this point, most of what the US had provided was smaller arms, javelins, and stingers.  In the most recent batch of aid, the US is providing armor, infantry vehicles and artillery, some of that has been delivered, but most updates are vague for obvious reasons.  I'd assume Oryx will do a clean update saying "delivered" once the US announces the next batch of aid, and says that "most" of the previous batches have been delivered.  

I believe the US and most other countries were hesitant to provide heavier armor, lethal aid, and such because they didn't want it to be lost in enemy hands (like recently in Afghanistan) and also worried about what might provoke Putin.  Ever since Bucha though, Ukraine has proven they can win this fight, and that they more than deserve just about everything they ask for.

---

It was also just reported that the US estimates Russia is down to 75% of what was assembled leading up to the war.  That's a combination of man power, armor and aircraft. That's a significant amount, and bordering on combat ineffective,

By US standards, a unit with 25% losses would be considered combat ineffective. The Russian losses are however not evenly distributed. Some units suffered what appeared to be almost total destruction! It is therefore hard to say exactly what shape various units are in. Given the tendency to tell the higher ups what they want to hear, I suspect the Russian leaders don't know either.

however Russia of course will reconstitute units to maintain combat effectiveness, but it means they can only effectively attack a smaller area, likely why they pulled out of most of the northern parts of Ukraine.

Traditionally Russia has used its units up, not rebuilt them. What they will do now in terms of a replacement strategy I don't know, but a few weeks isn't enough to replace a lot of your strength and fight well. This is especially true in an Army that lacks NCOs to lead at the lower levels. If Russia can accurately determine which units are actually good to go, they can still operate effectively offensively. If they try to use fought out units that way, casualties can skyrocket.

That's interesting about them using units up.  I know Russian doctrine is very different from American, specifically they don't allow their NCO's to make decisions in combat situations, especially compared to western militaries.  From what I've heard, a lot of the more elite units, such as VDV, were hit particularly hard in the early days of the war, because they were mostly isolated, and working ahead of their main force.  It's hard to get a full idea of what the Ukrainian losses have been, but it seems they are not quite at the relative level as Russia.  They are also unlikely to experience morale issues to the same degree as Russians, so I'm really wondering if we can eventually see Ukraine pushing back, especially after this initial wave of Russian aggression.  A number I've heard often when you are attacking a defensive position, is needing a 3/1 advantage in man power.  If Ukrainians can hold a lot of key areas, and inflict heavy casualties to the Russians, all while many reserves and green units are being trained and armed by western aid, it really good turn into a humiliating defeat for Russia.