[Goose]

Think you're wrong on this as well. Attrition favors Ukraine in a long war (as long as Western resolve to provide weapons doesn't falter). Russia's tank manufacturer has already shut down production due to lack of imported parts. Ukraine meanwhile is getting more and more advanced weapons from the West. Russia doesn't have a massive army like during the Cold War, in terms of manpower Ukraine has more than Russia can commit to Ukraine, and Russian attrition as the attacking force has been and will continue to be higher.

Ukraine unfortunately does not have more manpower. Right now, Russia is positioning 70K troops in the Donbas. Ukraine has about 30 to 35K troops to oppose them. These troops are also troops Ukraine cannot afford to lose, so getting them cut off and surrounded in the Donbas must be avoided at all costs. Ukraine has other troops in other parts of the country that could in theory be moved to the Donbas, but Ukraine has no good transport to move them and most of them are potentially needed where they are. You can't count on local self-defense forces to be capable of redeployment at all. They aren't organized or resourced to do that. The M113s recently provided are useful to Ukraine. They are old and aren't even RPG proof, but they can move troops. They help, but it is nowhere near enough to create a "mobile striking force". Neither side has actually shown the agility to concentrate a large force from disparate areas quickly. However, Russia doesn't need to. Ukraine does.

This battle will be fought in rolling plains, not a forest or built up areas. It is hard to surprise anybody. Russia has the use of an IAD system located in their territory and therefore untouchable. Ukraine does not. Russia can use bombs and cruise missiles on targets that are in the open field. Ukraine cannot. This movie has been shot before with Germans as the attacking force. Does not end well for the defenders.

Russia's military has shown us their best already, and their best frankly sucked and now is mostly dead or wounded. Ukraine has proven the saavy experts wrong thus far and my bet is for that to continue.

I have to disagree. What Russia has shown us is that an Army that invades another nation without an actual battle plan and the belief the other side won't fight is probably going to get beat. Half the army probably still thought it was an exercise when they first came under fire. That mistake will not be made again. Russia is going to concentrate their strength because they know Ukraine can't mount an offensive that threatens them.

Russia's current army isn't anywhere near as capable (relative to potential opponents) as the old USSR army was. However, they are very capable of executing a campaign like the one they did in Syria, where they step by step grind down an opponent that does not have the combat power to "shape the battle space". Russia will fight on their own terms when they want and how they want. This requires lots less skill than a "go for broke" multi-pronged advance, which is what they attempted the first time. Ukraine has to sit there and take it. No matter how much courage or skill Ukraine has, they can't win unless Russia quits. Russia won't quit as long as Putin remains in charge and has political control. So...

[Goose]

Think you're wrong on this as well. Attrition favors Ukraine in a long war (as long as Western resolve to provide weapons doesn't falter). Russia's tank manufacturer has already shut down production due to lack of imported parts. Ukraine meanwhile is getting more and more advanced weapons from the West. Russia doesn't have a massive army like during the Cold War, in terms of manpower Ukraine has more than Russia can commit to Ukraine, and Russian attrition as the attacking force has been and will continue to be higher.

Ukraine unfortunately does not have more manpower. Right now, Russia is positioning 70K troops in the Donbas. Ukraine has about 30 to 35K troops to oppose them. These troops are also troops Ukraine cannot afford to lose, so getting them cut off and surrounded in the Donbas must be avoided at all costs. Ukraine has other troops in other parts of the country that could in theory be moved to the Donbas, but Ukraine has no good transport to move them and most of them are potentially needed where they are. You can't count on local self-defense forces to be capable of redeployment at all. They aren't organized or resourced to do that. The M113s recently provided are useful to Ukraine. They are old and aren't even RPG proof, but they can move troops. They help, but it is nowhere near enough to create a "mobile striking force". Neither side has actually shown the agility to concentrate a large force from disparate areas quickly. However, Russia doesn't need to. Ukraine does.

This battle will be fought in rolling plains, not a forest or built up areas. It is hard to surprise anybody. Russia has the use of an IAD system located in their territory and therefore untouchable. Ukraine does not. Russia can use bombs and cruise missiles on targets that are in the open field. Ukraine cannot. This movie has been shot before with Germans as the attacking force. Does not end well for the defenders.

Russia's military has shown us their best already, and their best frankly sucked and now is mostly dead or wounded. Ukraine has proven the saavy experts wrong thus far and my bet is for that to continue.

I have to disagree. What Russia has shown us is that an Army that invades another nation without an actual battle plan and the belief the other side won't fight is probably going to get beat. Half the army probably still thought it was an exercise when they first came under fire. That mistake will not be made again. Russia is going to concentrate their strength because they know Ukraine can't mount an offensive that threatens them.

Russia's current army isn't anywhere near as capable (relative to potential opponents) as the old USSR army was. However, they are very capable of executing a campaign like the one they did in Syria, where they step by step grind down an opponent that does not have the combat power to "shape the battle space". Russia will fight on their own terms when they want and how they want. This requires lots less skill than a "go for broke" multi-pronged advance, which is what they attempted the first time. Ukraine has to sit there and take it. No matter how much courage or skill Ukraine has, they can't win unless Russia quits. Russia won't quit as long as Putin remains in charge and has political control. So...