[Goose]

Turning back to the "how does it end" question, I share the lack of clarity around this that others have expressed.  BUt as I read this article this morning, the question "when does it end" unfortuately does seem to have an answer:  not soon.   I think this article is behind a paywall for many.   My core take-away is that the upcoming battles will be fought closer to Russia, on terrain that may be better suited to Russian forces, with Russia having the advantage of attrition, in areas with a higher % of the population sympathetic to Russia, and farther from Ukraine's core supply lines.  Ukraine could indeed become land-locked.  

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-and-..._lead_pos9

Sadly, a long war is probably a "best case" for Ukraine. They aren't going to be saved by the West giving them new weapons for reasons we have gone over before on this board. The WSJ article indicates attrition favors Russia, which in the absence of any change in the political situation is accurate. Again, Ukraine's only hope is that they can stand the attrition AND the West can destroy Putin's ability to continue fighting by economic means. That can only happen if oil and gas imports to Western nations cease basically immediately. Anything else and Ukraine is a dead state walking IMHO. It is only a matter of how many deaths. The downstream consequences of Ukraine's defeat are very painful to contemplate. None of them are good  IMHO.

[Goose]

Turning back to the "how does it end" question, I share the lack of clarity around this that others have expressed.  BUt as I read this article this morning, the question "when does it end" unfortuately does seem to have an answer:  not soon.   I think this article is behind a paywall for many.   My core take-away is that the upcoming battles will be fought closer to Russia, on terrain that may be better suited to Russian forces, with Russia having the advantage of attrition, in areas with a higher % of the population sympathetic to Russia, and farther from Ukraine's core supply lines.  Ukraine could indeed become land-locked.  

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-and-..._lead_pos9

Sadly, a long war is probably a "best case" for Ukraine. They aren't going to be saved by the West giving them new weapons for reasons we have gone over before on this board. The WSJ article indicates attrition favors Russia, which in the absence of any change in the political situation is accurate. Again, Ukraine's only hope is that they can stand the attrition AND the West can destroy Putin's ability to continue fighting by economic means. That can only happen if oil and gas imports to Western nations cease basically immediately. Anything else and Ukraine is a dead state walking IMHO. It is only a matter of how many deaths. The downstream consequences of Ukraine's defeat are very painful to contemplate. None of them are good  IMHO.