[lex24]

I hope so. The thought that 450 sailors would have perished at sea is horrifying, even if they were combatants engaged in an unjust war of aggression.

BC

We think it’s horrifying. But do the Russians?  History tells us how Russia fights wars. In the Great Patriotic War Russia defeated Germany for several reasons. Some of it involving German miscalculation and hubris, but most of it in the incredible resolve of the Russian people, fueled by an Ultra- Nationalism, and also  the knowledge that if they didn’t fight, they’d be exiled or executed.

I think people in the West, and particularly most people in the US have little understanding of how different it is to live  in a Country with no democratic history and no democratic leanings. 

When we fought in the Gulf (whether you believe it the right or wrong action) we did so at least trying to limit civilian deaths and US casualties.  Russia will do neither. There are no protests in the streets (well there were  some early, but they didn’t end well for the protesters) no Congressional committees.  No questions of the leadership. - at least not publically.  And those within the leader class who do so privately risk their lives.  There is just Putin and his sycophants couple with an Ultra- Nationalist populace ready to fight and die for Mother Russia.

Which is why sanctions cannot in and of themselves end this. Although they must be imposed. The long term effect, I’m afraid, will be to further unite the Russians against the Evil West.

The only end I see to this mess (beyond those I do not wish to consider) is to give Putin some “graceful” out.  Zelensky has signaled Ukraine will agree to neutrality. But this won’t end absent some concession by Zelensky relative to the Crimea, and The Donbas. 

Not a particularly palatable “solution”. And of course any concession raises the possibility that he will view the West as soft and consider his next move.

But what other solution is there?  Those that suggest some form of direct action underestimate, in my opinion, the willingness of a cornered Putin to undertake the unthinkable.  And those that hope for a Russian uprising fail, I think, to understand the Russian mindset - molded by its history. Backed against the wall, the people will support Putin. Because it’s for “ Mother Russia”. 

What is happening to Ukraine is horrific.  But absent some “agreement” as distasteful as that will be, it’s likely to get worse.  A wounded Bear is a very dangerous animal.

[lex24]

I hope so. The thought that 450 sailors would have perished at sea is horrifying, even if they were combatants engaged in an unjust war of aggression.

BC

We think it’s horrifying. But do the Russians?  History tells us how Russia fights wars. In the Great Patriotic War Russia defeated Germany for several reasons. Some of it involving German miscalculation and hubris, but most of it in the incredible resolve of the Russian people, fueled by an Ultra- Nationalism, and also  the knowledge that if they didn’t fight, they’d be exiled or executed.

I think people in the West, and particularly most people in the US have little understanding of how different it is to live  in a Country with no democratic history and no democratic leanings. 

When we fought in the Gulf (whether you believe it the right or wrong action) we did so at least trying to limit civilian deaths and US casualties.  Russia will do neither. There are no protests in the streets (well there were  some early, but they didn’t end well for the protesters) no Congressional committees.  No questions of the leadership. - at least not publically.  And those within the leader class who do so privately risk their lives.  There is just Putin and his sycophants couple with an Ultra- Nationalist populace ready to fight and die for Mother Russia.

Which is why sanctions cannot in and of themselves end this. Although they must be imposed. The long term effect, I’m afraid, will be to further unite the Russians against the Evil West.

The only end I see to this mess (beyond those I do not wish to consider) is to give Putin some “graceful” out.  Zelensky has signaled Ukraine will agree to neutrality. But this won’t end absent some concession by Zelensky relative to the Crimea, and The Donbas. 

Not a particularly palatable “solution”. And of course any concession raises the possibility that he will view the West as soft and consider his next move.

But what other solution is there?  Those that suggest some form of direct action underestimate, in my opinion, the willingness of a cornered Putin to undertake the unthinkable.  And those that hope for a Russian uprising fail, I think, to understand the Russian mindset - molded by its history. Backed against the wall, the people will support Putin. Because it’s for “ Mother Russia”. 

What is happening to Ukraine is horrific.  But absent some “agreement” as distasteful as that will be, it’s likely to get worse.  A wounded Bear is a very dangerous animal.