[Goose]

Pretty much all the most senior Russian generals have Syrian experience. So you're correct that he probably doesn't have much regard for civilian lives, but they didn't pick him just for that reason- Dornikov is a full general, the most senior of the regional commanders, and also with the most experience in Donbas where the next fight will be focused. Maybe it will help the Russians to have a unified command, but I think if they are successful it will be more because they have concentrated their forces into a small enough area that in spite of their atrocious logistics and combined arms operations might achieve some breakthroughs. 

I think you are basically correct. I do expect having a single commander (who is not Putin) may reduce the number of tactical errors made by the Russians. That will help quite a bit. However, if the commander thinks this is Syria Part II, I think he will be sadly mistaken, and that could actually help Ukraine. In Syria, the rebels really didn't have unity of command, significant heavy weapons, or a credible air force/air defense. Ukraine has all of these. They can really make you pay, which the Syrian rebels couldn't.

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Russia doesn't have the manpower to take Odessa, and trying an amphibious assault would be very dicey for the Russians especially without controlling the eastern approaches from Mykolaiv. Amphibious assaults are always difficult, but the shore around Odessa is particularly difficult, with many inlets that would isolate a force trying to get off the beach. Surely it was an objective, but does not seem to be a realistic one for foreseeable future.

Totally agree. I think all along Russia was doing what we did in Kuwait. Put an amphibious force off the coast to fix the forces in place that are needed to defend against a landing. Then roll up said coast with an overland advance. The opponent can't move forces to defend against the advance because they are needed to defend against a landing. The amphibious force can then land behind the successful advance and reinforce it directly. Problem was the Ukraine stopped the coastal advance.

[Goose]

Pretty much all the most senior Russian generals have Syrian experience. So you're correct that he probably doesn't have much regard for civilian lives, but they didn't pick him just for that reason- Dornikov is a full general, the most senior of the regional commanders, and also with the most experience in Donbas where the next fight will be focused. Maybe it will help the Russians to have a unified command, but I think if they are successful it will be more because they have concentrated their forces into a small enough area that in spite of their atrocious logistics and combined arms operations might achieve some breakthroughs. 

I think you are basically correct. I do expect having a single commander (who is not Putin) may reduce the number of tactical errors made by the Russians. That will help quite a bit. However, if the commander thinks this is Syria Part II, I think he will be sadly mistaken, and that could actually help Ukraine. In Syria, the rebels really didn't have unity of command, significant heavy weapons, or a credible air force/air defense. Ukraine has all of these. They can really make you pay, which the Syrian rebels couldn't.

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Russia doesn't have the manpower to take Odessa, and trying an amphibious assault would be very dicey for the Russians especially without controlling the eastern approaches from Mykolaiv. Amphibious assaults are always difficult, but the shore around Odessa is particularly difficult, with many inlets that would isolate a force trying to get off the beach. Surely it was an objective, but does not seem to be a realistic one for foreseeable future.

Totally agree. I think all along Russia was doing what we did in Kuwait. Put an amphibious force off the coast to fix the forces in place that are needed to defend against a landing. Then roll up said coast with an overland advance. The opponent can't move forces to defend against the advance because they are needed to defend against a landing. The amphibious force can then land behind the successful advance and reinforce it directly. Problem was the Ukraine stopped the coastal advance.