Pretty much all the most senior Russian generals have Syrian experience. So you're correct that he probably doesn't have much regard for civilian lives, but they didn't pick him just for that reason- Dornikov is a full general, the most senior of the regional commanders, and also with the most experience in Donbas where the next fight will be focused. Maybe it will help the Russians to have a unified command, but I think if they are successful it will be more because they have concentrated their forces into a small enough area that in spite of their atrocious logistics and combined arms operations might achieve some breakthroughs.
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Russia doesn't have the manpower to take Odessa, and trying an amphibious assault would be very dicey for the Russians especially without controlling the eastern approaches from Mykolaiv. Amphibious assaults are always difficult, but the shore around Odessa is particularly difficult, with many inlets that would isolate a force trying to get off the beach. Surely it was an objective, but does not seem to be a realistic one for foreseeable future.
New antiship missiles will also make amphibious ops likely ruinous for the Russians. Harpoons have been reported by Daily Mail and Politico yesterday, though parsing this statement from NSA Jake Sullivan last week, I wonder:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room...-sullivan/
Could be that UK has some training/testing Harpoon batteries that they are sending, or could be referring to smaller, less powerful antiship missiles made by UK, the Sea Spear, which are more for taking out smaller patrol boats at much reduced range as compared to Harpoon. Hope it's the former, and as two sources have reported that while only internet chatter has focused on the Sea Spear, will say it seems more likely.
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Russia doesn't have the manpower to take Odessa, and trying an amphibious assault would be very dicey for the Russians especially without controlling the eastern approaches from Mykolaiv. Amphibious assaults are always difficult, but the shore around Odessa is particularly difficult, with many inlets that would isolate a force trying to get off the beach. Surely it was an objective, but does not seem to be a realistic one for foreseeable future.
New antiship missiles will also make amphibious ops likely ruinous for the Russians. Harpoons have been reported by Daily Mail and Politico yesterday, though parsing this statement from NSA Jake Sullivan last week, I wonder:
Quote:So, let’s take coastal defense systems as an example. President Biden went to Brussels to talk to key Allies 11 days ago about how to get coastal defense systems to Ukraine, because there is not, at the moment, a good U.S. option.
Last week, the UK announced at the close of its donor conference that coastal defense systems would be provided to the Ukrainians. It is a good example how, working with Allies and partners, we are successfully responding to Ukraine’s requests.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room...-sullivan/
Could be that UK has some training/testing Harpoon batteries that they are sending, or could be referring to smaller, less powerful antiship missiles made by UK, the Sea Spear, which are more for taking out smaller patrol boats at much reduced range as compared to Harpoon. Hope it's the former, and as two sources have reported that while only internet chatter has focused on the Sea Spear, will say it seems more likely.