[Goose]

I was being somewhat facetious about Poland marching on Moscow, but Russia has pulled all available manpower, even their cadets and instructors, to go to Ukraine. Their borders are not well defended by anything but their nuclear umbrella. They are not now, and won't be soon, a threat to anything but a part of eastern Ukraine.

I am pretty sure that the troops sitting on the Chinese border would beg to differ with you, as would those in Vlad and Petr.  Most of these defensive forces are not "available manpower" because they aren't very mobile. Some Naval Infantry from Petr did get a free trip towards Ukraine apparently, but it is a long train ride.

If this was the 1910s like Russia is acting like, China, Finland, Poland would probably all be getting ideas.

Maybe, but underestimating Russia is not a good idea. I think one thing we all must keep in mind is this Ukraine thing was probably planned (such as it was planned) from the top under a very strict security cordon. The guys who were actually called upon to execute it probably had no idea what they were supposed to do until they actually were called upon to do it. Nobody really got a chance to practice their part or to complain about obvious problems in the plan. Nobody got a chance to say "Yes, but what if the Ukrainians actually fight"? The Russian command organization is bad, but it is not this bad. The soldiers were undoubtedly told it was an exercise because the commanders themselves thought it was. Until it wasn't.

IMHO this war also show a weakness of the BTG organization. Look at https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmo...iore17.pdf I am not a great fan of the BCT concept that the US is now using either, but it is certainly more rational than the Russian organization. Fighting a "stand-up" conventional war should not be done with a BTG based organization, as Russia is finding out. Hopefully Ukraine can keep this war at a higher level of intensity which the BTGs cannot match. Grind them up.

Relying on Russia to actually repeat this debacle in the future would be doing exactly what the Russians did in the Ukraine, assuming the other side wouldn't/couldn't fight. Based on 2014, it was a good assumption. Don't make the same mistake. Russian troops fighting for a cause they believe in (defending Russia) will do just fine. Maybe not NATO standard, but just fine. Again, leadership matters. If the Russians can find a competent theater commander for Ukraine, look out. Fortunately, Putin will probably prevent that.

[Goose]

I was being somewhat facetious about Poland marching on Moscow, but Russia has pulled all available manpower, even their cadets and instructors, to go to Ukraine. Their borders are not well defended by anything but their nuclear umbrella. They are not now, and won't be soon, a threat to anything but a part of eastern Ukraine.

I am pretty sure that the troops sitting on the Chinese border would beg to differ with you, as would those in Vlad and Petr.  Most of these defensive forces are not "available manpower" because they aren't very mobile. Some Naval Infantry from Petr did get a free trip towards Ukraine apparently, but it is a long train ride.

If this was the 1910s like Russia is acting like, China, Finland, Poland would probably all be getting ideas.

Maybe, but underestimating Russia is not a good idea. I think one thing we all must keep in mind is this Ukraine thing was probably planned (such as it was planned) from the top under a very strict security cordon. The guys who were actually called upon to execute it probably had no idea what they were supposed to do until they actually were called upon to do it. Nobody really got a chance to practice their part or to complain about obvious problems in the plan. Nobody got a chance to say "Yes, but what if the Ukrainians actually fight"? The Russian command organization is bad, but it is not this bad. The soldiers were undoubtedly told it was an exercise because the commanders themselves thought it was. Until it wasn't.

IMHO this war also show a weakness of the BTG organization. Look at https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmo...iore17.pdf I am not a great fan of the BCT concept that the US is now using either, but it is certainly more rational than the Russian organization. Fighting a "stand-up" conventional war should not be done with a BTG based organization, as Russia is finding out. Hopefully Ukraine can keep this war at a higher level of intensity which the BTGs cannot match. Grind them up.

Relying on Russia to actually repeat this debacle in the future would be doing exactly what the Russians did in the Ukraine, assuming the other side wouldn't/couldn't fight. Based on 2014, it was a good assumption. Don't make the same mistake. Russian troops fighting for a cause they believe in (defending Russia) will do just fine. Maybe not NATO standard, but just fine. Again, leadership matters. If the Russians can find a competent theater commander for Ukraine, look out. Fortunately, Putin will probably prevent that.