[Goose]

Maybe Russia is sucking so so hard because they are trying to convince NATO they don't actually need to increase their defense budgets. Poland could march on Moscow at this point if Russia didn't have nukes.

I will argue with you about Poland going to Moscow. Not that I think Russia is in "great shape", but there are lots of things to consider in that assertion. Doesn't matter, because Russia does have nukes, and that is a big deal. If Russia can tie NATO's hands by playing the nuclear threat card, NATO's conventional military superiority may not matter.

Russia will take many years to rebuild their officer corps and replenish equipment losses into anything that could remotely threaten a single NATO country let alone all of them.

If you are Estonia, do you bet your country on that? It is very easy to over-estimate Russia's capabilities. OTOH, under effective leadership they have done unexpectedly rapid improvement in the past. Fortunately, right now they seem to lack such a leader.

As has been said, the worst thing to be is a bully who can't back it up.

Russia getting Finland and Sweden to join NATO and Germany to reorient away from Russian gas and reconsider nuclear power is a massive own goal for Russia. If Xi realizes what a drain Putin will be for him over the next few years, Russia will be well and truly boned. At that point just a matter of the right enterprising colonel coming along.

I agree with lots of what you are saying. However, as the last 3 months have shown the opinions and actions in Germany and the EU in general are subject to rapid change. FWIW, Sweden will join NATO very reluctantly if they in fact do join. Lots of things going on here, and I can't claim to know the outcomes. Lots of politics that can go various directions too.

[Goose]

Maybe Russia is sucking so so hard because they are trying to convince NATO they don't actually need to increase their defense budgets. Poland could march on Moscow at this point if Russia didn't have nukes.

I will argue with you about Poland going to Moscow. Not that I think Russia is in "great shape", but there are lots of things to consider in that assertion. Doesn't matter, because Russia does have nukes, and that is a big deal. If Russia can tie NATO's hands by playing the nuclear threat card, NATO's conventional military superiority may not matter.

Russia will take many years to rebuild their officer corps and replenish equipment losses into anything that could remotely threaten a single NATO country let alone all of them.

If you are Estonia, do you bet your country on that? It is very easy to over-estimate Russia's capabilities. OTOH, under effective leadership they have done unexpectedly rapid improvement in the past. Fortunately, right now they seem to lack such a leader.

As has been said, the worst thing to be is a bully who can't back it up.

Russia getting Finland and Sweden to join NATO and Germany to reorient away from Russian gas and reconsider nuclear power is a massive own goal for Russia. If Xi realizes what a drain Putin will be for him over the next few years, Russia will be well and truly boned. At that point just a matter of the right enterprising colonel coming along.

I agree with lots of what you are saying. However, as the last 3 months have shown the opinions and actions in Germany and the EU in general are subject to rapid change. FWIW, Sweden will join NATO very reluctantly if they in fact do join. Lots of things going on here, and I can't claim to know the outcomes. Lots of politics that can go various directions too.