[BigJohn043]

We are seeing a bit of a "reset" in this war. Russia is reorganizing it's forces, ostensibly to focus effort on the Donbas. The pace of operations has clearly slowed. Ukraine is pushing against the Russians near Kiev, but not with maximum intensity. "If they want to leave, let them" seems to largely be in play, at least as near as I can tell. It is clear that Russia could not sustain the pace of operations along so many different axis. Their logistical problems were clear and the consumption of material undoubtedly much much greater than anticipated. Ukraine undoubtedly has it's own material problems. Some of them are public, but there are for sure many others.

We don't know what, if anything, Ukraine is doing to redeploy it's forces to prepare for a Russian offensive in Donbas and/or the South. Obviously it is difficult to prepare when you have limited information on your enemies intentions, and you probably don't shout your plans from the rooftops. We don't know to what extent Ukraine intends to attempt the relief of Mariupol. If one looks at the map in https://www.axios.com/russia-ukraine-put...artner-vmg it is clear that the hold Russia has in the South Donbas is minimal. The "red line" of occupation there is indeed thin. However, you may not want to commit a large force there that can be isolated by an offensive from the North Donbas coming in behind you. Interesting problem.

One thing I have to keep reminding myself is that the Ukraine is a very big country and is mostly sparsely populated. If you look at a googlemaps overlay of the Donbas you see many, many large fields and relatively few large towns. When one says Russia "occupies" a given area, it doesn't mean there is a Russian soldier every 10 feet. Actually restricting the movement of small groups of people in this setting looks pretty hard to me. This means a conflict in Donbas is going to eat men and material at an alarming rate because securing the "rear areas" will be almost impossible. Neither side has an easy row to hoe, but the side with the better morale can keep at it, and the other side may not be willing to. Not good for Russia IMHO.

Agree with what you wrote above.  UKR has won the battle of Kiev and this war is now moving to a new stage.  What I am watching:

Can UKR push back the Russian positions on the outskirts of Kharkiv from which they can shell the city?  I am sure that Putin wants to keep up the pressure on UKR's second largest city.  It is also in the east and really close to the Russian border.  If they can be pushed back this will be big.

Can UKR take back Kherson?  I am sort of skeptical that Russia can really hold a city the size of Kherson.  UKR looks to have taken back some of the suburbs.  Taking it back would be a big blow against the Russians.

My guess is that there is no real way to relieve Mariupol.  OTOH, it will be interesting to see how long the city can hold out.  My guess is they can hold back as long as they have ammo.  No idea if they are getting ammo in.....

[BigJohn043]

We are seeing a bit of a "reset" in this war. Russia is reorganizing it's forces, ostensibly to focus effort on the Donbas. The pace of operations has clearly slowed. Ukraine is pushing against the Russians near Kiev, but not with maximum intensity. "If they want to leave, let them" seems to largely be in play, at least as near as I can tell. It is clear that Russia could not sustain the pace of operations along so many different axis. Their logistical problems were clear and the consumption of material undoubtedly much much greater than anticipated. Ukraine undoubtedly has it's own material problems. Some of them are public, but there are for sure many others.

We don't know what, if anything, Ukraine is doing to redeploy it's forces to prepare for a Russian offensive in Donbas and/or the South. Obviously it is difficult to prepare when you have limited information on your enemies intentions, and you probably don't shout your plans from the rooftops. We don't know to what extent Ukraine intends to attempt the relief of Mariupol. If one looks at the map in https://www.axios.com/russia-ukraine-put...artner-vmg it is clear that the hold Russia has in the South Donbas is minimal. The "red line" of occupation there is indeed thin. However, you may not want to commit a large force there that can be isolated by an offensive from the North Donbas coming in behind you. Interesting problem.

One thing I have to keep reminding myself is that the Ukraine is a very big country and is mostly sparsely populated. If you look at a googlemaps overlay of the Donbas you see many, many large fields and relatively few large towns. When one says Russia "occupies" a given area, it doesn't mean there is a Russian soldier every 10 feet. Actually restricting the movement of small groups of people in this setting looks pretty hard to me. This means a conflict in Donbas is going to eat men and material at an alarming rate because securing the "rear areas" will be almost impossible. Neither side has an easy row to hoe, but the side with the better morale can keep at it, and the other side may not be willing to. Not good for Russia IMHO.

Agree with what you wrote above.  UKR has won the battle of Kiev and this war is now moving to a new stage.  What I am watching:

Can UKR push back the Russian positions on the outskirts of Kharkiv from which they can shell the city?  I am sure that Putin wants to keep up the pressure on UKR's second largest city.  It is also in the east and really close to the Russian border.  If they can be pushed back this will be big.

Can UKR take back Kherson?  I am sort of skeptical that Russia can really hold a city the size of Kherson.  UKR looks to have taken back some of the suburbs.  Taking it back would be a big blow against the Russians.

My guess is that there is no real way to relieve Mariupol.  OTOH, it will be interesting to see how long the city can hold out.  My guess is they can hold back as long as they have ammo.  No idea if they are getting ammo in.....