We are seeing a bit of a "reset" in this war. Russia is reorganizing it's forces, ostensibly to focus effort on the Donbas. The pace of operations has clearly slowed. Ukraine is pushing against the Russians near Kiev, but not with maximum intensity. "If they want to leave, let them" seems to largely be in play, at least as near as I can tell. It is clear that Russia could not sustain the pace of operations along so many different axis. Their logistical problems were clear and the consumption of material undoubtedly much much greater than anticipated. Ukraine undoubtedly has it's own material problems. Some of them are public, but there are for sure many others.
We don't know what, if anything, Ukraine is doing to redeploy it's forces to prepare for a Russian offensive in Donbas and/or the South. Obviously it is difficult to prepare when you have limited information on your enemies intentions, and you probably don't shout your plans from the rooftops. We don't know to what extent Ukraine intends to attempt the relief of Mariupol. If one looks at the map in https://www.axios.com/russia-ukraine-put...artner-vmg it is clear that the hold Russia has in the South Donbas is minimal. The "red line" of occupation there is indeed thin. However, you may not want to commit a large force there that can be isolated by an offensive from the North Donbas coming in behind you. Interesting problem.
One thing I have to keep reminding myself is that the Ukraine is a very big country and is mostly sparsely populated. If you look at a googlemaps overlay of the Donbas you see many, many large fields and relatively few large towns. When one says Russia "occupies" a given area, it doesn't mean there is a Russian soldier every 10 feet. Actually restricting the movement of small groups of people in this setting looks pretty hard to me. This means a conflict in Donbas is going to eat men and material at an alarming rate because securing the "rear areas" will be almost impossible. Neither side has an easy row to hoe, but the side with the better morale can keep at it, and the other side may not be willing to. Not good for Russia IMHO.
We don't know what, if anything, Ukraine is doing to redeploy it's forces to prepare for a Russian offensive in Donbas and/or the South. Obviously it is difficult to prepare when you have limited information on your enemies intentions, and you probably don't shout your plans from the rooftops. We don't know to what extent Ukraine intends to attempt the relief of Mariupol. If one looks at the map in https://www.axios.com/russia-ukraine-put...artner-vmg it is clear that the hold Russia has in the South Donbas is minimal. The "red line" of occupation there is indeed thin. However, you may not want to commit a large force there that can be isolated by an offensive from the North Donbas coming in behind you. Interesting problem.
One thing I have to keep reminding myself is that the Ukraine is a very big country and is mostly sparsely populated. If you look at a googlemaps overlay of the Donbas you see many, many large fields and relatively few large towns. When one says Russia "occupies" a given area, it doesn't mean there is a Russian soldier every 10 feet. Actually restricting the movement of small groups of people in this setting looks pretty hard to me. This means a conflict in Donbas is going to eat men and material at an alarming rate because securing the "rear areas" will be almost impossible. Neither side has an easy row to hoe, but the side with the better morale can keep at it, and the other side may not be willing to. Not good for Russia IMHO.