[Goose]

The truth is that us armchair generals only have a limited view into what's happening in Ukraine. None of us know what the true losses for Russia or Ukraine are, we have limited idea what their stocks of equipment or ammo are like, particularly for Ukraine, and what information we do have is likely going to be biased towards Ukraine. We also don't know the true levels of western involvement and supply- I imagine if Ukraine did get MIGs or S300s or artillery ammo or xyz from the West, that wouldn't necessarily be public right away; the West would probably see benefit in hiding the provision of more offensive or advanced weapons to reduce risk of escalation.


The simplest things to observe are where Russian and Ukrainian forces are and aren't. Open source info can also give a pretty good idea of Russian equipment losses.



Bottom line we're all mostly talking out of our asses, important to recognize that.

Absolutely agree.

I happen to think that Ukraine will ultimately prevail, mostly because they are defending home territory with an immense morale advantage and have already sustained the best Russia could throw at them and have already taken the initiative to go on the offensive after only a month.

I hope you are correct. I am not as optimistic, but Ukraine for sure has exceeded expectations so far. What none of us know is how much punishment Putin is willing to inflict on his nation for ends that are unclear. That will have a lot of influence on the outcome.

[Goose]

The truth is that us armchair generals only have a limited view into what's happening in Ukraine. None of us know what the true losses for Russia or Ukraine are, we have limited idea what their stocks of equipment or ammo are like, particularly for Ukraine, and what information we do have is likely going to be biased towards Ukraine. We also don't know the true levels of western involvement and supply- I imagine if Ukraine did get MIGs or S300s or artillery ammo or xyz from the West, that wouldn't necessarily be public right away; the West would probably see benefit in hiding the provision of more offensive or advanced weapons to reduce risk of escalation.


The simplest things to observe are where Russian and Ukrainian forces are and aren't. Open source info can also give a pretty good idea of Russian equipment losses.



Bottom line we're all mostly talking out of our asses, important to recognize that.

Absolutely agree.

I happen to think that Ukraine will ultimately prevail, mostly because they are defending home territory with an immense morale advantage and have already sustained the best Russia could throw at them and have already taken the initiative to go on the offensive after only a month.

I hope you are correct. I am not as optimistic, but Ukraine for sure has exceeded expectations so far. What none of us know is how much punishment Putin is willing to inflict on his nation for ends that are unclear. That will have a lot of influence on the outcome.