[Treefence]

Regarding morale, artillery-

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1509587852409151492?s=20&t=uI-jttAtFhCsD1VEroBDlw[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1509277843628466180?s=20&t=8uMtMsC0_Q5jyOGPgtaGxQ[/tweet]

And again, Russia is presently, a month into the war, losing territory to the Ukrainians. I don't think anybody would have predicted that at the start, but those are the facts on the ground.

Putin certainly did not start a war that will cripple his military for years in order to secure a land bridge to Crimea or take Mariupol or gain some more gas fields or coal mines. Calling those things war aims really buys into the shifting propaganda from Russia.

The tweet about the UK providing artillery and armored vehicles is of note, since most countries have provided Manpad's and anti take equipment, but for the most part it's been defensive equipment.  If this is confirmed, and actually takes place, it would represent a significant scale up, and all eyes would be on Russia's reaction, if there is one.  Ukraine is at a significant turning point in this war, as they been taking back back lots of territory in the north and Kherson region.  If they are supplied properly, they could look to take back all their territory they've lost, though that's easier said than done.  Russia has yet to use chemical weapons in this war, but I've always worried that if the west begins sending offensive equipment, then Russia would flip that switch, but this is my personal guess and has not been stated by any major source that I know of.

[Treefence]

Regarding morale, artillery-

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1509587852409151492?s=20&t=uI-jttAtFhCsD1VEroBDlw[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1509277843628466180?s=20&t=8uMtMsC0_Q5jyOGPgtaGxQ[/tweet]

And again, Russia is presently, a month into the war, losing territory to the Ukrainians. I don't think anybody would have predicted that at the start, but those are the facts on the ground.

Putin certainly did not start a war that will cripple his military for years in order to secure a land bridge to Crimea or take Mariupol or gain some more gas fields or coal mines. Calling those things war aims really buys into the shifting propaganda from Russia.

The tweet about the UK providing artillery and armored vehicles is of note, since most countries have provided Manpad's and anti take equipment, but for the most part it's been defensive equipment.  If this is confirmed, and actually takes place, it would represent a significant scale up, and all eyes would be on Russia's reaction, if there is one.  Ukraine is at a significant turning point in this war, as they been taking back back lots of territory in the north and Kherson region.  If they are supplied properly, they could look to take back all their territory they've lost, though that's easier said than done.  Russia has yet to use chemical weapons in this war, but I've always worried that if the west begins sending offensive equipment, then Russia would flip that switch, but this is my personal guess and has not been stated by any major source that I know of.