[Goose]

We need to stop talking about theoretical Russian capabilities when we have over a month of real evidence to look at.

I don't disagree. What this map shows is that Russia has captured a land bridge from Russia to Crimea, a major war aim presumably. It also shows that Russia has captured the mouth of the Dnieper river, which in theory secures a water supply for Crimea, which is a major war aim. What the map also shows is that Russia has not captured Odessa and the entire Southern coast of Ukraine. It also shows Russia has not secured the majority of the Donetsk and Luhansk, which is a major war aim not accomplished. Supposedly, that will be Russia's new focus. The map however also shows some areas as Russian controlled that are still to some degree disputed by Ukrainian forces.
However, this map clearly shows Russia occupies lots of critical Ukrainian territory, much of which they aren't going to easily give back. Ukraine has make it clear they don't intend to surrender any territory. There are good reasons for this other than just pride. The areas Russia has captured are important to Ukraine's transport system and economy. Russia obviously has failed at it's major aim, which was to overwhelm Ukraine and destroy it as a nation. However, they have succeeded at several important war aims. Now, how does Ukraine reverse that success? That is question one. Question two is can Russia complete their control of the Donbas?
Russia has clearly under-performed. Historically, that has often been the case early in wars. Sometimes the Russians have recovered and corrected their deficiencies, sometimes they have not. Ukraine OTOH is running out of critical ordinance supplies that date back to the Soviet system. We can't supply replacements, and it is unclear other NATO nations can or will. Ukraine also lacks capability to attack "in depth". That makes the Russians problem a lot simpler.
As much as all of us would like to see Ukraine push Russia out, right now IMHO Ukraine simply can't do it unless the Russian troops simply will not fight. That could happen, but counting on that is a big ask. If Ukraine can acquire replacement/new artillery supplies and some significant MLRS capability then I think it is a different story. Without that, it becomes a stalemate with Russia occupying critical Ukraine territory that they will defend.

[Goose]

We need to stop talking about theoretical Russian capabilities when we have over a month of real evidence to look at.

I don't disagree. What this map shows is that Russia has captured a land bridge from Russia to Crimea, a major war aim presumably. It also shows that Russia has captured the mouth of the Dnieper river, which in theory secures a water supply for Crimea, which is a major war aim. What the map also shows is that Russia has not captured Odessa and the entire Southern coast of Ukraine. It also shows Russia has not secured the majority of the Donetsk and Luhansk, which is a major war aim not accomplished. Supposedly, that will be Russia's new focus. The map however also shows some areas as Russian controlled that are still to some degree disputed by Ukrainian forces.
However, this map clearly shows Russia occupies lots of critical Ukrainian territory, much of which they aren't going to easily give back. Ukraine has make it clear they don't intend to surrender any territory. There are good reasons for this other than just pride. The areas Russia has captured are important to Ukraine's transport system and economy. Russia obviously has failed at it's major aim, which was to overwhelm Ukraine and destroy it as a nation. However, they have succeeded at several important war aims. Now, how does Ukraine reverse that success? That is question one. Question two is can Russia complete their control of the Donbas?
Russia has clearly under-performed. Historically, that has often been the case early in wars. Sometimes the Russians have recovered and corrected their deficiencies, sometimes they have not. Ukraine OTOH is running out of critical ordinance supplies that date back to the Soviet system. We can't supply replacements, and it is unclear other NATO nations can or will. Ukraine also lacks capability to attack "in depth". That makes the Russians problem a lot simpler.
As much as all of us would like to see Ukraine push Russia out, right now IMHO Ukraine simply can't do it unless the Russian troops simply will not fight. That could happen, but counting on that is a big ask. If Ukraine can acquire replacement/new artillery supplies and some significant MLRS capability then I think it is a different story. Without that, it becomes a stalemate with Russia occupying critical Ukraine territory that they will defend.