03-29-2022, 03:39 PM
(03-29-2022, 02:11 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:Ukraine doesn't have "eventually" as an option, if eventually is more than a few months. They have 40 million (36 or so now) mouths to feed. Their economy is in tatters. Their power plants are destroyed or in Russian hands. Their rail lines are a mess. Some routes are impossible because Russians are on the junctions. The can't import/export by sea because Russia controls the Black Sea coastline and no commercial shipper is going to enter a war zone. Logistics won't force Russia out of Donbas or anywhere near the Russian border. Attrition could, but remember that up to now Russia has been attacking. In so far as Ukraine is now attacking, it can expect much heavier casualties. Attrition works both ways.Quote:How does Ukraine eject the Russians from their land? I don't think they can do it with what they have.
They're actively doing so, reclaiming territory and towns outside of Kiev, Kharkiv, Kherson. They probably do not have the maneuver units to perform a large envelopment of Russia forces, but considering Russia is on hostile territory this is not necessary. Attrition and logistics will force them out eventually.
Throwing the Russians back in some places is great, but it is not throwing the Russians out. My hope is that Russian morale snaps in some big way. That could do the trick. Mass surrenders. Short of that, a battle of attrition favors Russia staying in Ukraine IMHO. Either economic forces or morale loss is the only way they leave.
