Not sure there is much justification for your pessimism that Ukraine will lose the Donbas and eventually become a vassal state of Russia. Ukraine has taken the initiative and is counterattacking on all fronts. Russia has given up on taking Kiev, and this will free more Ukrainian troops to reinforce Donbas after they have mopped up any left over Russian troops from the north.
Most likely outcome of the war is Ukraine joining EU and probably receiving many millions to rebuild, probably losing little or no territory de facto, even if they disclaim Crimea and the portions of Donbas they haven't controlled since 2014.
I do agree that continuing sanctions in face of rising energy prices and domestic political concerns will be tough to continue in such unified fashion. But NATO is not who is stopping Russian advances, it's Ukraine, and they are the ones who will decide acceptable terms. If there were no sanctions at all, the on the ground situation would be no different.
For first time it seems Ukraine is at least willing to talk about status of Crimea and occupied Donbas regions from 2014, so that's where Putin gets his "win". The Russians who support the war have already seemed willing to swallow the lie that Russia's attacks towards Kiev were a feint and not a total f*ck up, so if Putin can say he secured those regions, maybe domestically he will be ok even after thousands of deaths, crushed economy, etc.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/29/...om-ukraine
Most likely outcome of the war is Ukraine joining EU and probably receiving many millions to rebuild, probably losing little or no territory de facto, even if they disclaim Crimea and the portions of Donbas they haven't controlled since 2014.
I do agree that continuing sanctions in face of rising energy prices and domestic political concerns will be tough to continue in such unified fashion. But NATO is not who is stopping Russian advances, it's Ukraine, and they are the ones who will decide acceptable terms. If there were no sanctions at all, the on the ground situation would be no different.
For first time it seems Ukraine is at least willing to talk about status of Crimea and occupied Donbas regions from 2014, so that's where Putin gets his "win". The Russians who support the war have already seemed willing to swallow the lie that Russia's attacks towards Kiev were a feint and not a total f*ck up, so if Putin can say he secured those regions, maybe domestically he will be ok even after thousands of deaths, crushed economy, etc.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/29/...om-ukraine