My main concern right now is figuring out what can be done to keep the focus on Ukraine. It appears that Russia may be backing away (at least for now) from taking over the entire country. Soon the question of paying for Russian gas to Europe will come to a head. It is critical that the EU not fold and give Russia what it wants.
Despite all the "NATO is stronger than ever" rhetoric, IMHO that strength is 1km wide and 1mm deep. While it is great that many of the EU countries have suddenly found a way to immediately increase their defense spending to 2% of GDP (which before was considered "impossible"), it is unclear that will be continued if hostilities cease in Ukraine. There is a lot of desire for peace to break out, even if that peace includes a destroyed Ukraine that is effectively a vassal state of Russia. Countries like Bulgaria and Romania are really considering how sure they are of article 5 support, and maybe it is a good idea to hedge their bets. Hungary is openly on the fence. Poland and the Baltics have no choice, but they too wonder if Germany will be willing to help defend them. There are historical issues in play here. Turkey was in an ambiguous position before the war and is certainly staying there.
NATO isn't nearly as "strong" as people wish it were. While there is a general feeling of solidarity, the willingness to actually do "hard" things is not demonstrably present. The possibility of Finland joining NATO is a mixed blessing. It will certainly set off Putin if he is still there. I am sure Finland would also fight very hard to defend themselves, but one must ask is NATO stronger with them inside it vs the danger Russia will overreact?
I expect in the next few weeks we are going to see the EU and NATO being called upon to make some hard decisions. IMHO sanctions need to remain in place until Russia is out of the Ukraine. It is going to be very tempting to say "Be reasonable, let Russia have the entire Donbas including what they took in this latest war. Ukraine will still be there, but it will be neutral". Ukraine can't survive as a nation IMHO if that happens. Russia will eventually take it all. This kind of outcome will be a wake-up call for lots of nations, but their conclusion may be "Be sure to be Russia's friend, because nobody is really willing to effectively oppose them".
Despite all the "NATO is stronger than ever" rhetoric, IMHO that strength is 1km wide and 1mm deep. While it is great that many of the EU countries have suddenly found a way to immediately increase their defense spending to 2% of GDP (which before was considered "impossible"), it is unclear that will be continued if hostilities cease in Ukraine. There is a lot of desire for peace to break out, even if that peace includes a destroyed Ukraine that is effectively a vassal state of Russia. Countries like Bulgaria and Romania are really considering how sure they are of article 5 support, and maybe it is a good idea to hedge their bets. Hungary is openly on the fence. Poland and the Baltics have no choice, but they too wonder if Germany will be willing to help defend them. There are historical issues in play here. Turkey was in an ambiguous position before the war and is certainly staying there.
NATO isn't nearly as "strong" as people wish it were. While there is a general feeling of solidarity, the willingness to actually do "hard" things is not demonstrably present. The possibility of Finland joining NATO is a mixed blessing. It will certainly set off Putin if he is still there. I am sure Finland would also fight very hard to defend themselves, but one must ask is NATO stronger with them inside it vs the danger Russia will overreact?
I expect in the next few weeks we are going to see the EU and NATO being called upon to make some hard decisions. IMHO sanctions need to remain in place until Russia is out of the Ukraine. It is going to be very tempting to say "Be reasonable, let Russia have the entire Donbas including what they took in this latest war. Ukraine will still be there, but it will be neutral". Ukraine can't survive as a nation IMHO if that happens. Russia will eventually take it all. This kind of outcome will be a wake-up call for lots of nations, but their conclusion may be "Be sure to be Russia's friend, because nobody is really willing to effectively oppose them".