[gailtate]

I greatly fear things in Ukraine are going to enter a very bad period even compared to the horrors we have already seen. The Russians are evidently reducing their attacks against the capital. It is unclear what their intentions in the South towards Odessa will be. In the East, the Russians are still applying pressure to Mariupol. It is expected to be fully occupied by Russia "shortly", although as long as the Ukrainian forces there can hold out, it will tie down a disproportionate number of Russian troops. The ability to use the port of Mariupol will significantly benefit Russia's ability to supply its forces operating in East Ukraine, although considerable damage will reduce that capability.
Some are likening Mariupol to the Alamo. I would dearly hope that is true, but I don't see how Ukraine can produce a subsequent San Jacinto. The idea has also been suggested that Russia's new war aim is to create an "East Ukraine" in the Donbas and extending down to Crimea. I have no idea if that is true, but I do know that the current Ukrainian government will not accept such a settlement. That will create a situation where this war goes on and on.
Once Russia has the Eastern part of the country, the continuation of the war will compel them to attack the rest of the Ukraine. Maintaining forces in the East that are static, yet constantly subject to attack from Ukraine is not viable. Russia will just keep nibbling in places of their own choosing, and it is improbable Ukraine can mount an offensive that will worry them much. The only thing that can save the rest of the Ukraine at that point is Russia being stopped by economic problems or internal civil unrest. While neither are impossible, they are not probable in the very near term IMHO.
It is also a big question what the West will do in that case. If the Ukraine has any chance to preserve it's existence as a country, they will have to get Russia out of East Ukraine and have enough military capability to defend themselves. Where will that come from?

The larger question is what becomes of a Russia in 2022-23 that is bogged down and imminently beholding a vintage '80s Afghanistan on its doorstep? Five, ten years from now can you see Putin thriving and flourishing at the top of a robust, world power the way he fancies himself? More likely, he blows his brains out in a bunker or gets them blown out, a la Ghaddafi, in the Kremlin. His resources are unsustainable to put it generously. What happens to his Potemkin empire and its mangy-mongrel military of starving conscripts? Yes, he has nukes but how long can he count on the loyalty of his enforcers, on endless months of rotten chow and contaminated water (think dysentery, to loyally lock and load?

[gailtate]

I greatly fear things in Ukraine are going to enter a very bad period even compared to the horrors we have already seen. The Russians are evidently reducing their attacks against the capital. It is unclear what their intentions in the South towards Odessa will be. In the East, the Russians are still applying pressure to Mariupol. It is expected to be fully occupied by Russia "shortly", although as long as the Ukrainian forces there can hold out, it will tie down a disproportionate number of Russian troops. The ability to use the port of Mariupol will significantly benefit Russia's ability to supply its forces operating in East Ukraine, although considerable damage will reduce that capability.
Some are likening Mariupol to the Alamo. I would dearly hope that is true, but I don't see how Ukraine can produce a subsequent San Jacinto. The idea has also been suggested that Russia's new war aim is to create an "East Ukraine" in the Donbas and extending down to Crimea. I have no idea if that is true, but I do know that the current Ukrainian government will not accept such a settlement. That will create a situation where this war goes on and on.
Once Russia has the Eastern part of the country, the continuation of the war will compel them to attack the rest of the Ukraine. Maintaining forces in the East that are static, yet constantly subject to attack from Ukraine is not viable. Russia will just keep nibbling in places of their own choosing, and it is improbable Ukraine can mount an offensive that will worry them much. The only thing that can save the rest of the Ukraine at that point is Russia being stopped by economic problems or internal civil unrest. While neither are impossible, they are not probable in the very near term IMHO.
It is also a big question what the West will do in that case. If the Ukraine has any chance to preserve it's existence as a country, they will have to get Russia out of East Ukraine and have enough military capability to defend themselves. Where will that come from?

The larger question is what becomes of a Russia in 2022-23 that is bogged down and imminently beholding a vintage '80s Afghanistan on its doorstep? Five, ten years from now can you see Putin thriving and flourishing at the top of a robust, world power the way he fancies himself? More likely, he blows his brains out in a bunker or gets them blown out, a la Ghaddafi, in the Kremlin. His resources are unsustainable to put it generously. What happens to his Potemkin empire and its mangy-mongrel military of starving conscripts? Yes, he has nukes but how long can he count on the loyalty of his enforcers, on endless months of rotten chow and contaminated water (think dysentery, to loyally lock and load?