[Goose]

I saw a lot of Tochka-U attribution online but it is true that the Ukrainian MOD hasn't made a specific claim about how the ship was struck so lots of possibilities.

There has indeed been lots of Tochka-U attribution on the internet. I would assume that if this missile was used it would have been detected by US surveillance, although maybe not and maybe not public if so. The CEP of the latest C version of the SS-21 is supposed to be 75 meters. Still not probable you could hit a ship reliably with one shot. However, the ship was docked next to an oil storage tank. It is possible the missile was fired at the ship, hit the oil tank, and the fire spread to the ship. For sure the oil tank did burn, whatever the cause. The ship exhibited multiple secondary explosions in the internet video which is consistent with a fire spreading to onboard ammunition/combat vehicles.
It is also possible a team sneaked to within 2km of the ship and hit either the oil tank or some crate of munitions with a Javelin. Quite possible nobody would notice such a launch, especially if it was from inside a building. Lots of courage and a bit of luck starting a real big fire.

Russia basically admitting they can't accomplish their initial war aims, so now they are focused on Donbas exclusively. I imagine a lot of the Russian advances will melt away unless they are continuously resupplied with men and arms, and seems clear Russia can't do that across their entire operational front in Ukraine.

Could be. It could also be intentional deception used to explain a necessary pause to regroup and resupply, which all the "experts" say the Russians probably need to do right now. It also could be a trial balloon to see how the Russian people respond. It could also be an attempt to cause the Ukrainians to shift forces from the area around the capital towards Donbas, which may be what the Russians want them to do. It is IMHO much too soon to accept the "reduced war aims" narrative. We have to see what plays out.

[Goose]

I saw a lot of Tochka-U attribution online but it is true that the Ukrainian MOD hasn't made a specific claim about how the ship was struck so lots of possibilities.

There has indeed been lots of Tochka-U attribution on the internet. I would assume that if this missile was used it would have been detected by US surveillance, although maybe not and maybe not public if so. The CEP of the latest C version of the SS-21 is supposed to be 75 meters. Still not probable you could hit a ship reliably with one shot. However, the ship was docked next to an oil storage tank. It is possible the missile was fired at the ship, hit the oil tank, and the fire spread to the ship. For sure the oil tank did burn, whatever the cause. The ship exhibited multiple secondary explosions in the internet video which is consistent with a fire spreading to onboard ammunition/combat vehicles.
It is also possible a team sneaked to within 2km of the ship and hit either the oil tank or some crate of munitions with a Javelin. Quite possible nobody would notice such a launch, especially if it was from inside a building. Lots of courage and a bit of luck starting a real big fire.

Russia basically admitting they can't accomplish their initial war aims, so now they are focused on Donbas exclusively. I imagine a lot of the Russian advances will melt away unless they are continuously resupplied with men and arms, and seems clear Russia can't do that across their entire operational front in Ukraine.

Could be. It could also be intentional deception used to explain a necessary pause to regroup and resupply, which all the "experts" say the Russians probably need to do right now. It also could be a trial balloon to see how the Russian people respond. It could also be an attempt to cause the Ukrainians to shift forces from the area around the capital towards Donbas, which may be what the Russians want them to do. It is IMHO much too soon to accept the "reduced war aims" narrative. We have to see what plays out.