[Goose]

Ukraine struck a Russian ship today with a short range ballistic missile. Nuts that they still have that capability a month into this. 


Russian casualties are likely approaching 20% of initial forces, and everywhere but the south, Ukraine is counter-attacking and siezing territory back. Zelensky won't and can't sign any peace treaty that cedes land. Formalizing Russian Crimea, Donbas, and some agreement to stay out NATO is probably all Zelensky could agree to. But this will still likely go on for a while.

Ukraine isn't actually saying how they sank the ship. The short range ballistic missiles they have are not real accurate, so actually hitting a ship with them would be pretty much luck. However they did it, it was absolutely great. It might make it much harder to supply the Southern front if Ukraine can effectively hold ports at risk. Supposedly the US and NATO are actually trying to get some anti-ship cruse missiles for Ukraine.

I agree that the concessions you list are basically all that Ukraine is willing to agree to, and that reluctantly (obviously). It is so much like the status quo ante that I find it hard to believe Russia will accept that solution. If they do accept that solution, I don't see Putin surviving it very long. Russia will have lost many troops for essentially nothing. Slathering lipstick on the pig doesn't change that.

[Goose]

Ukraine struck a Russian ship today with a short range ballistic missile. Nuts that they still have that capability a month into this. 


Russian casualties are likely approaching 20% of initial forces, and everywhere but the south, Ukraine is counter-attacking and siezing territory back. Zelensky won't and can't sign any peace treaty that cedes land. Formalizing Russian Crimea, Donbas, and some agreement to stay out NATO is probably all Zelensky could agree to. But this will still likely go on for a while.

Ukraine isn't actually saying how they sank the ship. The short range ballistic missiles they have are not real accurate, so actually hitting a ship with them would be pretty much luck. However they did it, it was absolutely great. It might make it much harder to supply the Southern front if Ukraine can effectively hold ports at risk. Supposedly the US and NATO are actually trying to get some anti-ship cruse missiles for Ukraine.

I agree that the concessions you list are basically all that Ukraine is willing to agree to, and that reluctantly (obviously). It is so much like the status quo ante that I find it hard to believe Russia will accept that solution. If they do accept that solution, I don't see Putin surviving it very long. Russia will have lost many troops for essentially nothing. Slathering lipstick on the pig doesn't change that.