03-20-2022, 12:00 PM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/zelenskky-sai...15765.html
In so far as Zelenskyy is unwilling to give up Crimea, there isn't going to be a peace agreement. The two Donbas "Republics" are probably in a similar category. Putin absolutely cannot give these up and remain in power. That would represent a loss on his part, and he can't let that happen. There is little doubt that "the law" in on Ukraine's side regarding these issues, but the facts on the ground are not. A cease-fire may be obtained with these issues unresolved, but not peace.
A cease-fire works for Ukraine only if the West is allowed to militarily build them up while negotiations for a final agreement are in progress. Right now, Russia probably would like to call a TO so they can get reorganized. It needs to be a short TO because leaving their troops in place is costly in supplies and gives the Russian people time to figure out what is going on. They will then just start the war again if they don't get what they want. Ukraine would get less benefit from a short pause than Russia will militarily UNLESS the West "sells" them lots of stuff during the pause. Hard for Putin to object since there is no war at that point, right?
This "give up no territory" situation could be solved if Ukraine "sells" Crimea to Russia for 100 billion or so. Obviously, it would be under duress, but Putin could claim he got what he wanted and Ukraine could say they didn't "give up territory". Putin probably isn't getting much if any of his frozen funds back anyway. It will need to be used to rebuild Ukraine. Leveraging it to get over this issue might be a way out. Goodness knows both sides will need one.
In so far as Zelenskyy is unwilling to give up Crimea, there isn't going to be a peace agreement. The two Donbas "Republics" are probably in a similar category. Putin absolutely cannot give these up and remain in power. That would represent a loss on his part, and he can't let that happen. There is little doubt that "the law" in on Ukraine's side regarding these issues, but the facts on the ground are not. A cease-fire may be obtained with these issues unresolved, but not peace.
A cease-fire works for Ukraine only if the West is allowed to militarily build them up while negotiations for a final agreement are in progress. Right now, Russia probably would like to call a TO so they can get reorganized. It needs to be a short TO because leaving their troops in place is costly in supplies and gives the Russian people time to figure out what is going on. They will then just start the war again if they don't get what they want. Ukraine would get less benefit from a short pause than Russia will militarily UNLESS the West "sells" them lots of stuff during the pause. Hard for Putin to object since there is no war at that point, right?
This "give up no territory" situation could be solved if Ukraine "sells" Crimea to Russia for 100 billion or so. Obviously, it would be under duress, but Putin could claim he got what he wanted and Ukraine could say they didn't "give up territory". Putin probably isn't getting much if any of his frozen funds back anyway. It will need to be used to rebuild Ukraine. Leveraging it to get over this issue might be a way out. Goodness knows both sides will need one.