[BigJohn043]

Russia has devoted 3/4 of its all combat troops to Ukraine. It really has no more to add, which is why it is trying to import Syrian fighters.

That being said, word is that the Russians have entered Mariupol.  If they can hold it (big if), then those soldiers can be freed to try to encircle Ukrainian soldiers on the Eastern front.

BC

I don't think this is right.  Russia has an army of roughly ~900K active members and they have only committed ~200K to Ukraine so far.  There are questions as to the quality of those troops, but my best understanding is that they can commit more.

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In my view the best evaluation of the Ukraine war situation.

Russia is almost totally stalled at this point and in some situations Ukraine is counter attacking.  I think the real question is if the Russians will reinforce their units and they could easily double or triple the number of units on the battlefield.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1505043913652027393

They have more forces available, but they are having trouble supplying the ones the have already deployed. More troops may just make the supply problem worse. This will be especially true if things are done ad hoc without an overall plan, which right now seems to be the Russian MO.
Unfortunately the Ukraine has essentially no ability to strike into Russia, so Russia can keep firing missiles unto Ukraine until they run out of them. That won't be soon. It is unclear which approach Russia is going to use, flood the area with more troops or stand off and blow things up. Either one is possible. Adding more troops carries the most risk, as casualties could increase significantly as lower quality formations are used. No telling what Putin will do. Doing both makes little sense, as it increases risks more than benefits.

Additional units would likely have their own logistics capabilities.  There is a real issue in the north that the mud is making them stick to the roads and there are no more roads.

I think the other problem is that even if Russia throws another ~100K troops at Kiev it isn't enough to take or even encircle the city.

Right now it looks like the Russians are digging into their current positions.  New troops are being fed into existing positions rather than being used to open new lines of attack.  This could change but that is what is happening now.

With the war at a stalemate, Russia will continue to fire rockets and artillery at the cities.  OTOH, Ukraine is going to relentlessly attack Russian supply lines.  It feels unlikely that Russia will ever reach its targets.  OTOH, it is possible that the Russian army could essentially collapse due to lack of supply and being encircled by Ukraine units.

It strikes me that time is not Putin's friend.  All the talk of a potential cease fire is the best evidence we have of how poorly the Russians are doing.

[BigJohn043]

Russia has devoted 3/4 of its all combat troops to Ukraine. It really has no more to add, which is why it is trying to import Syrian fighters.

That being said, word is that the Russians have entered Mariupol.  If they can hold it (big if), then those soldiers can be freed to try to encircle Ukrainian soldiers on the Eastern front.

BC

I don't think this is right.  Russia has an army of roughly ~900K active members and they have only committed ~200K to Ukraine so far.  There are questions as to the quality of those troops, but my best understanding is that they can commit more.

---

In my view the best evaluation of the Ukraine war situation.

Russia is almost totally stalled at this point and in some situations Ukraine is counter attacking.  I think the real question is if the Russians will reinforce their units and they could easily double or triple the number of units on the battlefield.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1505043913652027393

They have more forces available, but they are having trouble supplying the ones the have already deployed. More troops may just make the supply problem worse. This will be especially true if things are done ad hoc without an overall plan, which right now seems to be the Russian MO.
Unfortunately the Ukraine has essentially no ability to strike into Russia, so Russia can keep firing missiles unto Ukraine until they run out of them. That won't be soon. It is unclear which approach Russia is going to use, flood the area with more troops or stand off and blow things up. Either one is possible. Adding more troops carries the most risk, as casualties could increase significantly as lower quality formations are used. No telling what Putin will do. Doing both makes little sense, as it increases risks more than benefits.

Additional units would likely have their own logistics capabilities.  There is a real issue in the north that the mud is making them stick to the roads and there are no more roads.

I think the other problem is that even if Russia throws another ~100K troops at Kiev it isn't enough to take or even encircle the city.

Right now it looks like the Russians are digging into their current positions.  New troops are being fed into existing positions rather than being used to open new lines of attack.  This could change but that is what is happening now.

With the war at a stalemate, Russia will continue to fire rockets and artillery at the cities.  OTOH, Ukraine is going to relentlessly attack Russian supply lines.  It feels unlikely that Russia will ever reach its targets.  OTOH, it is possible that the Russian army could essentially collapse due to lack of supply and being encircled by Ukraine units.

It strikes me that time is not Putin's friend.  All the talk of a potential cease fire is the best evidence we have of how poorly the Russians are doing.