[ca245]

I am not sure I credit the 7K for exactly this reason. It seems far too high for the amount of actual combat going on. However, if it is true that the Ukrainians actually killed the commander of 150 Motor Rifle Division, that division should be really chewed up for that to happen. It should be combat ineffective. Yet we don't see it being pulled off the line. Lots of "does not compute" in the fog of war, so I think we just don't know.

The number seems pretty credible to me. 4 generals already KIA and that's well documented. Supposedly about 20 Russian generals on ground in Ukraine, so if a fifth of them have died, that would at least accord with KIA rates of ~5% of total force. 

OSINT observation of Russian equipment losses would also accord I think with the 7k number. 1480 vehicles destroyed, captured, abandoned, 675 of those destroyed.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/at...pment.html

In any case it's in the right ballpark. Maybe it's 5k. Maybe it's 10k. But it definitely isn't 498, and whether it's 5k, 7k, or 10k, it's unsustainable for the Russians for more than a short period of time.

Such heavy losses also would explain why Russia is extending conscription contracts, and bringing in 2nd and 3rd tier garrison troops from various post Soviet states and irregular Syrian forces. Yes they will eventually run out of materiel, but they will run out of manpower first, at least manpower with sufficient training and morale to do anything even somewhat useful.

The Russian offensive is done or close to it. Whether we see a stalemate or a Russian collapse is the only question to me.

Suppose the Russian offensive stalls but Russia settles into trying to bombard the Ukrainian cities into submission, with only world opinion to stop them. Who will hold out longer: the Ukrainian people or Putin?

[ca245]

I am not sure I credit the 7K for exactly this reason. It seems far too high for the amount of actual combat going on. However, if it is true that the Ukrainians actually killed the commander of 150 Motor Rifle Division, that division should be really chewed up for that to happen. It should be combat ineffective. Yet we don't see it being pulled off the line. Lots of "does not compute" in the fog of war, so I think we just don't know.

The number seems pretty credible to me. 4 generals already KIA and that's well documented. Supposedly about 20 Russian generals on ground in Ukraine, so if a fifth of them have died, that would at least accord with KIA rates of ~5% of total force. 

OSINT observation of Russian equipment losses would also accord I think with the 7k number. 1480 vehicles destroyed, captured, abandoned, 675 of those destroyed.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/at...pment.html

In any case it's in the right ballpark. Maybe it's 5k. Maybe it's 10k. But it definitely isn't 498, and whether it's 5k, 7k, or 10k, it's unsustainable for the Russians for more than a short period of time.

Such heavy losses also would explain why Russia is extending conscription contracts, and bringing in 2nd and 3rd tier garrison troops from various post Soviet states and irregular Syrian forces. Yes they will eventually run out of materiel, but they will run out of manpower first, at least manpower with sufficient training and morale to do anything even somewhat useful.

The Russian offensive is done or close to it. Whether we see a stalemate or a Russian collapse is the only question to me.

Suppose the Russian offensive stalls but Russia settles into trying to bombard the Ukrainian cities into submission, with only world opinion to stop them. Who will hold out longer: the Ukrainian people or Putin?