[M T]

I know zilch about politics and almost nothing about the military situation, but I wonder how Putin can back down and out.  Whatever happens in reality, politically he's going to have to declare victory.  Even if the troops pull out tomorrow, he'll need some way to tell the Russian people that they won.

Even so, those in the know in Russian power/political circle will now see him as vulnerable.  Who will go after his position?  Are they more or are the less likely to do military or other offensive actions?  Surely that is known or predicted by the various intelligence agencies around the world.  I'd think most of the rest of the world wouldn't want a more hard-line Russian leader.

Is it possible that Putin was essentially forced into this action by forces in the Russian power circles?  If so, allowing him a face-saving way out might reduce the likelihood of this happening again in the near future. ("See, military action was a painful, futile exercise.")  But if it was all Putin, then the only reason to give him a face-saving exit  is if otherwise some hardliner would take over and say that Russia's military is too weak and needs to be built stronger.

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The talk of his being overthrown or assassinated seems like it didn't take into account what would happen afterwards.  Who is poised to take over?  If no one, then in the chaos that follows, what are the chances that some one would get into power with the short-sightedness to do the truly irrational/insane actions.

[M T]

I know zilch about politics and almost nothing about the military situation, but I wonder how Putin can back down and out.  Whatever happens in reality, politically he's going to have to declare victory.  Even if the troops pull out tomorrow, he'll need some way to tell the Russian people that they won.

Even so, those in the know in Russian power/political circle will now see him as vulnerable.  Who will go after his position?  Are they more or are the less likely to do military or other offensive actions?  Surely that is known or predicted by the various intelligence agencies around the world.  I'd think most of the rest of the world wouldn't want a more hard-line Russian leader.

Is it possible that Putin was essentially forced into this action by forces in the Russian power circles?  If so, allowing him a face-saving way out might reduce the likelihood of this happening again in the near future. ("See, military action was a painful, futile exercise.")  But if it was all Putin, then the only reason to give him a face-saving exit  is if otherwise some hardliner would take over and say that Russia's military is too weak and needs to be built stronger.

------
The talk of his being overthrown or assassinated seems like it didn't take into account what would happen afterwards.  Who is poised to take over?  If no one, then in the chaos that follows, what are the chances that some one would get into power with the short-sightedness to do the truly irrational/insane actions.