[Goose]

I no longer really fear that Ukraine will capitulate.  I fear 1) humanitarian/civilian catastrophe for Ukraine in a drawn out war, 2) death of Zelensky and other Ukrainian leaders in an airstrike or other operation, 3) possible nuclear expansion of the war if and when Putin gets truly desperate.

Agree with most of your points. Ukraine has really upped it's game since 2014. The things you fear are things I also fear. I do not think nuclear expansion is probable, but who knows what miscalculations are possible. Nuclear weapons can be used to intimidate Ukraine, but I am not sure that will work and may just push/provide justification for NATO to really help Ukraine defense capabilities against missile attack. No other real use for nukes in the present situation IMHO.
My additional fear is that Russia realizes the points you made about their difficulty to maintain an offensive and simply sits where they are. That will bleed them of troops, but probably not at an intolerable rate. A further unsuccessful offensive by Russia will kill too many Russians. Staying where they are costs money they don't have, but casualties will not be too heavy.
Ukraine can't function as a country under those circumstances. No place will be fully safe. Ukraine will be essentially cut off from the Black Sea even if Odessa doesn't fall, because no commercial entity will want to enter a war zone. It's borders will be closed on three sides. It will need to generate enough combat power to push Russia out. I am not sure they can. Offenses are much more expensive in blood and treasure than defenses are.  I also fear in the event of stalemate the EU and/or the US will lose focus and let up on Russia. Dearly hope not, but I do not have a lot of confidence the politicians can retain focus when nothing appears to be changing and there is no resolution in sight. OTOH, the longer this goes on the more the average Russian will find out about this being a war of Putin's choice, not a national imperative. How does that play out?

[Goose]

I no longer really fear that Ukraine will capitulate.  I fear 1) humanitarian/civilian catastrophe for Ukraine in a drawn out war, 2) death of Zelensky and other Ukrainian leaders in an airstrike or other operation, 3) possible nuclear expansion of the war if and when Putin gets truly desperate.

Agree with most of your points. Ukraine has really upped it's game since 2014. The things you fear are things I also fear. I do not think nuclear expansion is probable, but who knows what miscalculations are possible. Nuclear weapons can be used to intimidate Ukraine, but I am not sure that will work and may just push/provide justification for NATO to really help Ukraine defense capabilities against missile attack. No other real use for nukes in the present situation IMHO.
My additional fear is that Russia realizes the points you made about their difficulty to maintain an offensive and simply sits where they are. That will bleed them of troops, but probably not at an intolerable rate. A further unsuccessful offensive by Russia will kill too many Russians. Staying where they are costs money they don't have, but casualties will not be too heavy.
Ukraine can't function as a country under those circumstances. No place will be fully safe. Ukraine will be essentially cut off from the Black Sea even if Odessa doesn't fall, because no commercial entity will want to enter a war zone. It's borders will be closed on three sides. It will need to generate enough combat power to push Russia out. I am not sure they can. Offenses are much more expensive in blood and treasure than defenses are.  I also fear in the event of stalemate the EU and/or the US will lose focus and let up on Russia. Dearly hope not, but I do not have a lot of confidence the politicians can retain focus when nothing appears to be changing and there is no resolution in sight. OTOH, the longer this goes on the more the average Russian will find out about this being a war of Putin's choice, not a national imperative. How does that play out?