[81alum]

Can Ukraine ever generate enough combat power to produce more than a stalemate? If not, this war could last years.

One could say that the war began in 2014 and already has lasted 8 years of stalemate.  Ukraine has used those 8 years to dramatically improve its military capabilities.  If Russian had invaded the entire nation in 2014 instead of 2022, it might well have had the result Putin expected.  

However, most autocrats have great difficulties in getting realistic, accurate information since the people who are in a position to deliver that information are afraid to do so.  As Putin's autocracy has become more extreme, his ability to make rationale decisions based upon accurate information has declined, and he clearly overestimated the effects of his own reforms of the the Russian military and underestimated the effects of Ukraine's reforms of its military.

Note:  Ukraine launched several small scale counteroffensives today.  It will be interesting to see if these sorts of operations happen more frequently.

If the war lasts months or years, I think Ukraine will be favored, as their military power continues to grow with fresh equipment and millions of untrained civil defense forces who will acquire more and more training and equipment over time.  Meanwhile, the best of the Russian military is being ground down and Russia will have more and more difficulty resupplying, manufacturing spare parts, and obtaining replacements for its casualties.  Russia may have to resort to expanded conscription for replacements--which it can easily do, but which not result in a highly motivated fighting force.

I no longer really fear that Ukraine will capitulate.  I fear 1) humanitarian/civilian catastrophe for Ukraine in a drawn out war, 2) death of Zelensky and other Ukrainian leaders in an airstrike or other operation, 3) possible nuclear expansion of the war if and when Putin gets truly desperate.

[81alum]

Can Ukraine ever generate enough combat power to produce more than a stalemate? If not, this war could last years.

One could say that the war began in 2014 and already has lasted 8 years of stalemate.  Ukraine has used those 8 years to dramatically improve its military capabilities.  If Russian had invaded the entire nation in 2014 instead of 2022, it might well have had the result Putin expected.  

However, most autocrats have great difficulties in getting realistic, accurate information since the people who are in a position to deliver that information are afraid to do so.  As Putin's autocracy has become more extreme, his ability to make rationale decisions based upon accurate information has declined, and he clearly overestimated the effects of his own reforms of the the Russian military and underestimated the effects of Ukraine's reforms of its military.

Note:  Ukraine launched several small scale counteroffensives today.  It will be interesting to see if these sorts of operations happen more frequently.

If the war lasts months or years, I think Ukraine will be favored, as their military power continues to grow with fresh equipment and millions of untrained civil defense forces who will acquire more and more training and equipment over time.  Meanwhile, the best of the Russian military is being ground down and Russia will have more and more difficulty resupplying, manufacturing spare parts, and obtaining replacements for its casualties.  Russia may have to resort to expanded conscription for replacements--which it can easily do, but which not result in a highly motivated fighting force.

I no longer really fear that Ukraine will capitulate.  I fear 1) humanitarian/civilian catastrophe for Ukraine in a drawn out war, 2) death of Zelensky and other Ukrainian leaders in an airstrike or other operation, 3) possible nuclear expansion of the war if and when Putin gets truly desperate.