(03-16-2022, 12:18 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The lay of the land at the conclusion of the third week of Russia's war on Ukraine:
- Russia has gained exceptionally little ground since invasion and not even taken any city of consequence, let alone Kyiv
- Estimates of over 10,000 Russian casualties (KIA, wounded)
- Hundreds of Russian armored vehicles and aircraft lost
- Massive military and humanitarian aid being given to Ukraine while Russia is running out of resources
- Crippling economic sanctions on Russia and imploding economy
- Strengthening of NATO
- European Union commitment to move off Russian fossil fuels
- Demonstrated military weakness
- War crimes that will be prosecuted
- Global pariah status achieved
- Ukraine withstanding invasion forces puts Russia at negotiating table in the loser's position*
- The future cost of reparations to re-build the country after wrecking it
* The word from Ukraine today is it is telling Russia it won't have its own military, but will have bases for other forces that will come to Ukraine's defense to directly fight Russia if it again attacks Ukraine. Russia in no position to demand anything.
Would that that were so. The Ukraine has already given up the right to join NATO in the negotiations. The idea that they will rely solely on forces from outside their country for defense is obviously so untenable that it is a joke. Firstly the speed of such a response could never be adequate to prevent an unopposed Russian takeover and second most of the reasons that prevent NATO intervention today would be just as applicable. Remember also that the US, UK, and Russia jointly signed the Budapest memorandum that "prohibited the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan". Given how well that worked for Ukraine no sane person could believe a disarmed Ukraine could survive. Giving up the NATO option is probably just being realistic, because NATO itself wasn't going to go along with it. Unless the war completely turns around and Russia is forced to quit, Ukraine gets totally screwed. The longer the war goes on the more probable it is Russia is forced to do that. However, in the process, Ukraine will suffer greatly. Who will last the longest?
Quote:Can someone tell me what exactly Russia is gaining from its invasion of Ukraine and how it is going to be in a better position after doing it? Because even if I squint very hard, I can't see anything, and I am really trying.
Totally agree. It is crazy. Crimea is a different case, but they already had that. Ukraine will cost them more than it will benefit them, at least for the immediate future.