[Goose]

There are so many other things that could happen, but I haven't heard a lot of speculation about Belarus.  It's obviously puppet state for Putin, but it seems clear their military is avoiding participating in the war.  I wonder if this might be the time for a revolution in that country, with Lukashenko being extremely unpopular, and likely lost the last election, had it not been rigged.

Kind of hard to do when the Russian army is already in your country. Belarus is going to be "more closely united" with Russia real soon unless Putin actually fails in Ukraine. Lukashenko will remain as window dressing, but Belarus is probably toast. Lukashenko undoubtedly didn't want Russian troops in his country in the first place, but had no choice. The Russians don't want the military of Belarus doing anything. That way they won't be organized and prepared to resist even if asked to do so by Lukashenko (improbable).

I would like to recommend COLLAPSE by Vladislav Zubok as a reference to how the attitudes in Russia reached the point that something like this is possible. The book definitely has a slant, but the psychology of the Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia are definitely addressed in a useful way (IMHO).

[Goose]

There are so many other things that could happen, but I haven't heard a lot of speculation about Belarus.  It's obviously puppet state for Putin, but it seems clear their military is avoiding participating in the war.  I wonder if this might be the time for a revolution in that country, with Lukashenko being extremely unpopular, and likely lost the last election, had it not been rigged.

Kind of hard to do when the Russian army is already in your country. Belarus is going to be "more closely united" with Russia real soon unless Putin actually fails in Ukraine. Lukashenko will remain as window dressing, but Belarus is probably toast. Lukashenko undoubtedly didn't want Russian troops in his country in the first place, but had no choice. The Russians don't want the military of Belarus doing anything. That way they won't be organized and prepared to resist even if asked to do so by Lukashenko (improbable).

I would like to recommend COLLAPSE by Vladislav Zubok as a reference to how the attitudes in Russia reached the point that something like this is possible. The book definitely has a slant, but the psychology of the Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia are definitely addressed in a useful way (IMHO).