[Goose]

2. Western officials think Russia may use chemical weapons in Ukraine.  If they bomb children's and maternity hospitals, I don't think they'd hold back on using Sarin gas.  They're already committing atrocities

Highly improbable IMHO. The concern about chemical weapons has been around since WW I, but they have essentially never been used in a "serious" war despite both sides having the capability to do so. The two reasons for this are that 1) CBW precautions slow down the attacker significantly. Given what appears to be the low standard of training of the Russian military, many of their troops would undoubtedly be unable to correctly/quickly suit up and would be killed too. It doesn't result in a net advantage. 2) It justifies the other side doing similar things. In this case, it would also seriously increase the probability of US/NATO/EU increasing their involvement on the grounds the Russians have seriously violated the rules of "civilized" warfare.

The Russians won't be held back by moral scruples, but rather by the calculus of low benefit/high cost. The have plenty of technical superiority already. They don't need to take such a risk.

[Goose]

2. Western officials think Russia may use chemical weapons in Ukraine.  If they bomb children's and maternity hospitals, I don't think they'd hold back on using Sarin gas.  They're already committing atrocities

Highly improbable IMHO. The concern about chemical weapons has been around since WW I, but they have essentially never been used in a "serious" war despite both sides having the capability to do so. The two reasons for this are that 1) CBW precautions slow down the attacker significantly. Given what appears to be the low standard of training of the Russian military, many of their troops would undoubtedly be unable to correctly/quickly suit up and would be killed too. It doesn't result in a net advantage. 2) It justifies the other side doing similar things. In this case, it would also seriously increase the probability of US/NATO/EU increasing their involvement on the grounds the Russians have seriously violated the rules of "civilized" warfare.

The Russians won't be held back by moral scruples, but rather by the calculus of low benefit/high cost. The have plenty of technical superiority already. They don't need to take such a risk.