[TriangleTree]

I would bet on reversion to the mean.  Next year will be rough on defense, but after that we will get past our self-imposed sanctions and might surprise some people.

BC

I guess the question here is: what's our mean?  6-6?  It is true that a football season, consisting of 12 games, is a "limited sample".  Looking at last season, the Washington and WSU games could have gone either way, so we could easily have been 5-7 with the same team.  That said, the Oregon game was all but lost; and the OT thriller required several excellent plays and lucky breaks to pull the W out of the fire.  So we also could easily have been 2-10.  That's a range of 4 different seasonal outcomes.  

This sort of range is likely to happen next year, as well, but I don't see anything to suggest six wins.  With only one "gimme" in the schedule (Colgate), we could be looking at a range of 1-11 to 4-8, with reality probably in between these two bookends.  If we get to 4-8, who are the scalps?  Colgate, Oregon State at home, maybe Cal away, maybe Wazzu or ASU at home.  Anybody else we can beat?  We have the even-year challenge of 4 home games and 5 away in conference play; and those 5 away games include: Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah and Cal.  Notre Dame is also in South Bend next year.  If the schedule was tough this year, it's equally tough in 2022.

Anything is possible, but can this team hit the reset button? Wheels definitely came off in 2021.
O-Line needs a quantum leap, good returning talent on paper but will it ever come together. Really hope there's a plan and an all out party search for the soul of the TWU.
D-Line needs a new start, no clue whether the talent is there, this could go anywhere from very ugly to nice surprise. Is it to much to hope for? 
Will B Tremayne return? Everything went downhill when he went down,  could have been a coincidence but he definitely opened things up. The kid was virtually unstoppable. Could this also bring back McKee to life?
Will the team still believe in 2022? I'm not close but haven't heard about mass defections or total loss of faith, which is in itself remarkable given how the season went. 

Not sure what the chance of all of this happening is, but that's what it will take to come back the winning column in 22.
Good recruiting class gives me hope...

[TriangleTree]

I would bet on reversion to the mean.  Next year will be rough on defense, but after that we will get past our self-imposed sanctions and might surprise some people.

BC

I guess the question here is: what's our mean?  6-6?  It is true that a football season, consisting of 12 games, is a "limited sample".  Looking at last season, the Washington and WSU games could have gone either way, so we could easily have been 5-7 with the same team.  That said, the Oregon game was all but lost; and the OT thriller required several excellent plays and lucky breaks to pull the W out of the fire.  So we also could easily have been 2-10.  That's a range of 4 different seasonal outcomes.  

This sort of range is likely to happen next year, as well, but I don't see anything to suggest six wins.  With only one "gimme" in the schedule (Colgate), we could be looking at a range of 1-11 to 4-8, with reality probably in between these two bookends.  If we get to 4-8, who are the scalps?  Colgate, Oregon State at home, maybe Cal away, maybe Wazzu or ASU at home.  Anybody else we can beat?  We have the even-year challenge of 4 home games and 5 away in conference play; and those 5 away games include: Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah and Cal.  Notre Dame is also in South Bend next year.  If the schedule was tough this year, it's equally tough in 2022.

Anything is possible, but can this team hit the reset button? Wheels definitely came off in 2021.
O-Line needs a quantum leap, good returning talent on paper but will it ever come together. Really hope there's a plan and an all out party search for the soul of the TWU.
D-Line needs a new start, no clue whether the talent is there, this could go anywhere from very ugly to nice surprise. Is it to much to hope for? 
Will B Tremayne return? Everything went downhill when he went down,  could have been a coincidence but he definitely opened things up. The kid was virtually unstoppable. Could this also bring back McKee to life?
Will the team still believe in 2022? I'm not close but haven't heard about mass defections or total loss of faith, which is in itself remarkable given how the season went. 

Not sure what the chance of all of this happening is, but that's what it will take to come back the winning column in 22.
Good recruiting class gives me hope...