[JohnR34231]

I would bet on reversion to the mean.  Next year will be rough on defense, but after that we will get past our self-imposed sanctions and might surprise some people.

BC

I guess the question here is: what's our mean?  6-6?  It is true that a football season, consisting of 12 games, is a "limited sample".  Looking at last season, the Washington and WSU games could have gone either way, so we could easily have been 5-7 with the same team.  That said, the Oregon game was all but lost; and the OT thriller required several excellent plays and lucky breaks to pull the W out of the fire.  So we also could easily have been 2-10.  That's a range of 4 different seasonal outcomes.  

This sort of range is likely to happen next year, as well, but I don't see anything to suggest six wins.  With only one "gimme" in the schedule (Colgate), we could be looking at a range of 1-11 to 4-8, with reality probably in between these two bookends.  If we get to 4-8, who are the scalps?  Colgate, Oregon State at home, maybe Cal away, maybe Wazzu or ASU at home.  Anybody else we can beat?  We have the even-year challenge of 4 home games and 5 away in conference play; and those 5 away games include: Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah and Cal.  Notre Dame is also in South Bend next year.  If the schedule was tough this year, it's equally tough in 2022.

I believe we play U$C at home so unless the new coach does a magic turnaround that might also be a possible victory.
But yeah, I have a hard time seeing anything better than 4-8 also.

[JohnR34231]

I would bet on reversion to the mean.  Next year will be rough on defense, but after that we will get past our self-imposed sanctions and might surprise some people.

BC

I guess the question here is: what's our mean?  6-6?  It is true that a football season, consisting of 12 games, is a "limited sample".  Looking at last season, the Washington and WSU games could have gone either way, so we could easily have been 5-7 with the same team.  That said, the Oregon game was all but lost; and the OT thriller required several excellent plays and lucky breaks to pull the W out of the fire.  So we also could easily have been 2-10.  That's a range of 4 different seasonal outcomes.  

This sort of range is likely to happen next year, as well, but I don't see anything to suggest six wins.  With only one "gimme" in the schedule (Colgate), we could be looking at a range of 1-11 to 4-8, with reality probably in between these two bookends.  If we get to 4-8, who are the scalps?  Colgate, Oregon State at home, maybe Cal away, maybe Wazzu or ASU at home.  Anybody else we can beat?  We have the even-year challenge of 4 home games and 5 away in conference play; and those 5 away games include: Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah and Cal.  Notre Dame is also in South Bend next year.  If the schedule was tough this year, it's equally tough in 2022.

I believe we play U$C at home so unless the new coach does a magic turnaround that might also be a possible victory.
But yeah, I have a hard time seeing anything better than 4-8 also.