[Mick]

So, Who on the Mick’s list do you think survives to next year (5% of ballots)

BV

Bonds falls off, it's his last year.  I don't think he gets to 75%, same for Schilling, Sosa and Clemens, all of whom are in their 10th year.

Vizquel was on 49.1% last year, he'll survive to next year.

Kent was on 32.4% of the ballots, he'll make it to 2023.

Hudson is in his second year on the ballot, was named to 5.2%.  I think he falls off.  He had a great record for the A's (.702 %) and the Braves (.611), not so good for the Giants (.436 in two years).  4x all-star (once with a losing record), won 20 just once.  No real unique qualities.

Peavy, Nathan, Lincecum, Pierzynski are all in their first year.  I think Nathan and Lincecum survive to next year, I think Peavy and Pierzynski do not.  Peavy had one great year, won the Cy Young. 3x all star, once with a losing record. Otherwise, unremarkable, 54% winning percentage. Pierzynski may not get a single vote, given his personality and lack of qualifications.

Joe Nathan is #8 saves all time. 6x all stars. HoF'ers behind him in saves are Fingers, Gossage and Sutter in that order.  Nathan never led the league in saves, not once. Close, but I don't think it's enough.

Lincecum was 2x Cy Young winner, led league in strikeouts three years in a row.  Electric pitcher.  Never led league in wins or ERA, led league in losses once.  Led league in WPs three times.

[Mick]

So, Who on the Mick’s list do you think survives to next year (5% of ballots)

BV

Bonds falls off, it's his last year.  I don't think he gets to 75%, same for Schilling, Sosa and Clemens, all of whom are in their 10th year.

Vizquel was on 49.1% last year, he'll survive to next year.

Kent was on 32.4% of the ballots, he'll make it to 2023.

Hudson is in his second year on the ballot, was named to 5.2%.  I think he falls off.  He had a great record for the A's (.702 %) and the Braves (.611), not so good for the Giants (.436 in two years).  4x all-star (once with a losing record), won 20 just once.  No real unique qualities.

Peavy, Nathan, Lincecum, Pierzynski are all in their first year.  I think Nathan and Lincecum survive to next year, I think Peavy and Pierzynski do not.  Peavy had one great year, won the Cy Young. 3x all star, once with a losing record. Otherwise, unremarkable, 54% winning percentage. Pierzynski may not get a single vote, given his personality and lack of qualifications.

Joe Nathan is #8 saves all time. 6x all stars. HoF'ers behind him in saves are Fingers, Gossage and Sutter in that order.  Nathan never led the league in saves, not once. Close, but I don't think it's enough.

Lincecum was 2x Cy Young winner, led league in strikeouts three years in a row.  Electric pitcher.  Never led league in wins or ERA, led league in losses once.  Led league in WPs three times.