[teejers1]

I also fear that Kelly is going to aim for a major blow-out.  ND's largest margin of victory against Stanford was 57-7 back in 2003 (the perfidious days of Buddy Ball).  Will it be that bad?  I certainly hope not.  I'm going 49-13.  Bad enough, but better than the Utah beatdown.

This.  Our game is ND's last chance to impress the CFP people and a blowout helps the thin chance they have of making the CFP.   In this week's poll ND is #6.  One of #2 tOSU or #5 UM will lose and likely fall below ND (well maybe not if UM wins a close game).  ND will need a little help to move further up, something like if UGA wins out and blows out Alabama in the SEC championship or Cincinnati slips up in against East Carolina or in the AAC Championship vs Houston....

I don't think how many points ND scores against Stanford will matter much to the committee, other than perhaps if it is a really close game. The Kal game has totally devalued that as a metric. However, if you are a good team, you can't really tell your players not to play hard. They will play hard, perhaps especially if they are second or third stringers trying to make a case for next year. That is what may run up the score.

ND's slim chances to get in pretty much depend (as stated by the OP) on either 1) some kind of chaos in the B1G, 2) a 2 loss Alabama team being DQed by the committee, or 3) Cincinnati loses a game. If one or more of these happen, ND is in, and if not, ND is out, no matter how many points they score or don't score against Stanford.

I don't think it's that hard to envision ND in CFP scenario:

UGA beats Alabama (DQing 2-loss Tide);
Michigan or tOSU (most likely, the latter) winning out.

Doesn't that do the trick?

UGA, tOSU, Cincy, ND.

I heard that Okie State could make some noise if they blow out Oklahoma and Baylor . . . but I'll consider that when it happens.

Some of the mafia over on ESPN have floated the idea that a two-loss Alabama team would still be CFP-worthy.  Imagine a barn-burner in the SEC championship game, with Alabama falling short on a missed FG as time expires.  The Crimson Tide might still sneak in on the strength of its near upset of the undefeated Bulldogs, or so they say on SEC-friendly ESPN.  Of course, if Georgia loses in the championship game, then its Bama and the Bulldogs for sure in the CFP, leaving only two other slots.  One of those most probably goes to the B1G; one may have to go to Cincy if they win out.  ND only gets to the top 4 if Georgia destroys Alabama in the championship game (i.e., 20+ point victory).  So I think Kelly will be motivated to make a statement in his final game of the regular season.  If Stanford makes it a close game, Kelly's CFP dream is dashed.

I think 2-loss 'Bama is out.  There's just no good reason on the merits to give 'Bama a third bite at the apple.  The A&M loss alone is worse than ND's L to Cincy.  So I'm not too worried about a 2L 'Bama.

The problem is this:  I could see the fix being in, SEC-wise, to grease a 'Bama win (because UGA is "in" either way).  $$ talks.

[teejers1]

I also fear that Kelly is going to aim for a major blow-out.  ND's largest margin of victory against Stanford was 57-7 back in 2003 (the perfidious days of Buddy Ball).  Will it be that bad?  I certainly hope not.  I'm going 49-13.  Bad enough, but better than the Utah beatdown.

This.  Our game is ND's last chance to impress the CFP people and a blowout helps the thin chance they have of making the CFP.   In this week's poll ND is #6.  One of #2 tOSU or #5 UM will lose and likely fall below ND (well maybe not if UM wins a close game).  ND will need a little help to move further up, something like if UGA wins out and blows out Alabama in the SEC championship or Cincinnati slips up in against East Carolina or in the AAC Championship vs Houston....

I don't think how many points ND scores against Stanford will matter much to the committee, other than perhaps if it is a really close game. The Kal game has totally devalued that as a metric. However, if you are a good team, you can't really tell your players not to play hard. They will play hard, perhaps especially if they are second or third stringers trying to make a case for next year. That is what may run up the score.

ND's slim chances to get in pretty much depend (as stated by the OP) on either 1) some kind of chaos in the B1G, 2) a 2 loss Alabama team being DQed by the committee, or 3) Cincinnati loses a game. If one or more of these happen, ND is in, and if not, ND is out, no matter how many points they score or don't score against Stanford.

I don't think it's that hard to envision ND in CFP scenario:

UGA beats Alabama (DQing 2-loss Tide);
Michigan or tOSU (most likely, the latter) winning out.

Doesn't that do the trick?

UGA, tOSU, Cincy, ND.

I heard that Okie State could make some noise if they blow out Oklahoma and Baylor . . . but I'll consider that when it happens.

Some of the mafia over on ESPN have floated the idea that a two-loss Alabama team would still be CFP-worthy.  Imagine a barn-burner in the SEC championship game, with Alabama falling short on a missed FG as time expires.  The Crimson Tide might still sneak in on the strength of its near upset of the undefeated Bulldogs, or so they say on SEC-friendly ESPN.  Of course, if Georgia loses in the championship game, then its Bama and the Bulldogs for sure in the CFP, leaving only two other slots.  One of those most probably goes to the B1G; one may have to go to Cincy if they win out.  ND only gets to the top 4 if Georgia destroys Alabama in the championship game (i.e., 20+ point victory).  So I think Kelly will be motivated to make a statement in his final game of the regular season.  If Stanford makes it a close game, Kelly's CFP dream is dashed.

I think 2-loss 'Bama is out.  There's just no good reason on the merits to give 'Bama a third bite at the apple.  The A&M loss alone is worse than ND's L to Cincy.  So I'm not too worried about a 2L 'Bama.

The problem is this:  I could see the fix being in, SEC-wise, to grease a 'Bama win (because UGA is "in" either way).  $$ talks.