[Goose]

I also fear that Kelly is going to aim for a major blow-out.  ND's largest margin of victory against Stanford was 57-7 back in 2003 (the perfidious days of Buddy Ball).  Will it be that bad?  I certainly hope not.  I'm going 49-13.  Bad enough, but better than the Utah beatdown.

This.  Our game is ND's last chance to impress the CFP people and a blowout helps the thin chance they have of making the CFP.   In this week's poll ND is #6.  One of #2 tOSU or #5 UM will lose and likely fall below ND (well maybe not if UM wins a close game).  ND will need a little help to move further up, something like if UGA wins out and blows out Alabama in the SEC championship or Cincinnati slips up in against East Carolina or in the AAC Championship vs Houston....

I don't think how many points ND scores against Stanford will matter much to the committee, other than perhaps if it is a really close game. The Kal game has totally devalued that as a metric. However, if you are a good team, you can't really tell your players not to play hard. They will play hard, perhaps especially if they are second or third stringers trying to make a case for next year. That is what may run up the score.

ND's slim chances to get in pretty much depend (as stated by the OP) on either 1) some kind of chaos in the B1G, 2) a 2 loss Alabama team being DQed by the committee, or 3) Cincinnati loses a game. If one or more of these happen, ND is in, and if not, ND is out, no matter how many points they score or don't score against Stanford.

[Goose]

I also fear that Kelly is going to aim for a major blow-out.  ND's largest margin of victory against Stanford was 57-7 back in 2003 (the perfidious days of Buddy Ball).  Will it be that bad?  I certainly hope not.  I'm going 49-13.  Bad enough, but better than the Utah beatdown.

This.  Our game is ND's last chance to impress the CFP people and a blowout helps the thin chance they have of making the CFP.   In this week's poll ND is #6.  One of #2 tOSU or #5 UM will lose and likely fall below ND (well maybe not if UM wins a close game).  ND will need a little help to move further up, something like if UGA wins out and blows out Alabama in the SEC championship or Cincinnati slips up in against East Carolina or in the AAC Championship vs Houston....

I don't think how many points ND scores against Stanford will matter much to the committee, other than perhaps if it is a really close game. The Kal game has totally devalued that as a metric. However, if you are a good team, you can't really tell your players not to play hard. They will play hard, perhaps especially if they are second or third stringers trying to make a case for next year. That is what may run up the score.

ND's slim chances to get in pretty much depend (as stated by the OP) on either 1) some kind of chaos in the B1G, 2) a 2 loss Alabama team being DQed by the committee, or 3) Cincinnati loses a game. If one or more of these happen, ND is in, and if not, ND is out, no matter how many points they score or don't score against Stanford.