10-22-2021, 07:26 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2021, 07:46 AM by ColoradoTree.)
(10-21-2021, 03:27 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote: Thank you as always for your analysis ColoradoTree.
Given all of this, would you say we are one of the favorites for the national title in the spring? Obviously, there's a whole season to play and a lot can happen between now and then, but at the moment, who would you put as the top contenders?
Well, we have to remember that this is just one region, and it would be a lot more predictive if Gordon, Giavara, Ivanov, and Bayerlova were here. And counting on freshmen to perform to expectations is a dangerous game. But I will say that if the freshmen perform even close to expectations, we're a top 5 team. And part of why I'm so excited about this tournament is it's our first real chance to see how our freshmen do perform against collegiate competition. Are we on track to be one of the last few teams standing this spring, or should I tamp down my expectations? When Stanford players run into each other in the draw, how does it shake out? (They're all in different sections of the draw, so they won't play each other until the quarterfinals at the earliest.) Who looks to have taken a developmental leap over the summer?
Looking around the country, Texas has to be the favorite, because they won the national title with freshmen playing 5 of 6 singles lines, and they bring just about everyone back. And UNC is going to be very tough, as will Pepperdine, Georgia, and Duke. In the conference at the end of the year, the pecking order was basically Cal-UCLA-Stanford-USC. We are going to improve on that--UCLA is still going to be tough, but they lose a few contributors, and I think we're a bit better now. USC brings back their top 3, but they're vulnerable to a deep team. Cal is a top 10-caliber team, so I think that match at the end of the year decides the conference #1 seed. If our freshmen play to form and develop like we think they can, I think we win that match and are the Pac-12 favorites, which effectively means we're in the mix as plausible national title winners. But we're counting on improvement from a lot of folks who haven't played much or any college tennis. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I want to see some results first. And we'll get some this weekend.
Outside the conference, here are the benchmark matches of which I'm aware: (1) the match against UVA in Charlottesville to determine who advances to Indoor Nationals; (2) a match on February 25 when we host Texas; (3) how we do at Indoor Nationals if we get there; and (4) a match against Pepperdine on March 6 in Malibu. If you're in the area, get thee to Taube for that Texas match, and if you leave nearby, go to Malibu for that Pepperdine match. Both of those teams are national title contenders, so I'm excited for those tests.
