[lex24]

Seager will cost a bundle. But he’s 27.  So I’d be much more willing to go 6 years or so at about 25-30.  If that’s the market.

lol that's not even close to the market.

Ok then, what  is the market for Seager?  Is it Lindor -  $340,000,000 for 10?  You are right, I was way off.  But he’s had some injury issues which may bring it down some. Plus the new CBA is going to have some impact. Unsure what that will be. Assuming they can get one done before pitchers and catchers report. Which is questionable.

It would be unprecedented for an elite free agent (or impending free agent signing an extension) at Seager's age to settle for a six year contract. Players fortunate enough to reach free agency in their mid-20s can leverage their peak years in order to be paid handsomely during their decline years. It would be foolish for Seager to sign for six years and be a free agent again at age 33 unless the AAV was well above market.

There aren't very many comparables; here is the complete list of top players who signed free agent contracts or extensions at age 27 or younger in the last ten years:

Francisco Lindor: age 27 when his extension kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 4.8 and 3.5 (pro rata given the 60 game season). 10 years/$341 million.

Manny Machado: age 26 when his contract kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 3.8 and 6.1. 10 years/$300 million.

Bryce Harper: age 26 when his contract kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 4.8 and 1.8. 13 years/$330 million.

Giancarlo Stanton: age 25 when his extension kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 2.8 and 6.5. 13 years/$325 million.

Seager will be 27 on opening day next year (although he turns 28 about a month later, and then again the actual opening day may be in July). He is coming off bWAR seasons of 5.7 (pro rata) and 3.7.

He only played 95 games this year, meaning that if he had played a full season his bWAR would likely be in the 5-6 range similar to the previous season. Of course he only played 95 games due to injury, so while he's been consistently elite I suppose it's possible that some teams could have injury concerns, as you mentioned. However, his injury was a broken hand which is a fluke rather than a chronic concern such as a knee, back or shoulder.

There are a lot of variables. The CBA is about to expire. I assume that the de facto salary cap will be increased but that's uncertain. The Yankees and other large market teams are in need of a shortstop. However, other top shortstops (Story, Correa) are available. He may accept a slight discount from the Dodgers but not from other teams. I don't know how he views the tradeoff between contract length and AAV.

But a contract in the neighborhood of $165 million as you posited doesn't jibe with what we know about the market for similar players.

I do have other information but it's second hand. I do know that he is willing to play a different position in the right situation.

Thanks.  I had already admitted that my 165 was way off.  But appreciate your analysis.

[lex24]

Seager will cost a bundle. But he’s 27.  So I’d be much more willing to go 6 years or so at about 25-30.  If that’s the market.

lol that's not even close to the market.

Ok then, what  is the market for Seager?  Is it Lindor -  $340,000,000 for 10?  You are right, I was way off.  But he’s had some injury issues which may bring it down some. Plus the new CBA is going to have some impact. Unsure what that will be. Assuming they can get one done before pitchers and catchers report. Which is questionable.

It would be unprecedented for an elite free agent (or impending free agent signing an extension) at Seager's age to settle for a six year contract. Players fortunate enough to reach free agency in their mid-20s can leverage their peak years in order to be paid handsomely during their decline years. It would be foolish for Seager to sign for six years and be a free agent again at age 33 unless the AAV was well above market.

There aren't very many comparables; here is the complete list of top players who signed free agent contracts or extensions at age 27 or younger in the last ten years:

Francisco Lindor: age 27 when his extension kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 4.8 and 3.5 (pro rata given the 60 game season). 10 years/$341 million.

Manny Machado: age 26 when his contract kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 3.8 and 6.1. 10 years/$300 million.

Bryce Harper: age 26 when his contract kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 4.8 and 1.8. 13 years/$330 million.

Giancarlo Stanton: age 25 when his extension kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 2.8 and 6.5. 13 years/$325 million.

Seager will be 27 on opening day next year (although he turns 28 about a month later, and then again the actual opening day may be in July). He is coming off bWAR seasons of 5.7 (pro rata) and 3.7.

He only played 95 games this year, meaning that if he had played a full season his bWAR would likely be in the 5-6 range similar to the previous season. Of course he only played 95 games due to injury, so while he's been consistently elite I suppose it's possible that some teams could have injury concerns, as you mentioned. However, his injury was a broken hand which is a fluke rather than a chronic concern such as a knee, back or shoulder.

There are a lot of variables. The CBA is about to expire. I assume that the de facto salary cap will be increased but that's uncertain. The Yankees and other large market teams are in need of a shortstop. However, other top shortstops (Story, Correa) are available. He may accept a slight discount from the Dodgers but not from other teams. I don't know how he views the tradeoff between contract length and AAV.

But a contract in the neighborhood of $165 million as you posited doesn't jibe with what we know about the market for similar players.

I do have other information but it's second hand. I do know that he is willing to play a different position in the right situation.

Thanks.  I had already admitted that my 165 was way off.  But appreciate your analysis.