[BostonCard]

Thought people penciled UW in the win column after they lost opener at home to Montana and then got blown out by Michigan in Game 2.  But maybe I'm mistaken.  Anyway, Stanford can win that game, but it won't be easy, as it might be against an overmatched opponent.

I don't know that we can pencil in any wins, though if we don't beat WSU and Cal, it is hard to see how we would have any chance at a winning season.  Mentally, I put UW into the category of "a team we might be able to get our sixth win against".  We got the win against Oregon contrary to expectations, but OSU looks tougher than expected.  So I am still at five likely wins, with several other teams possible.

Here are our upcoming opponents in descending probability of a win (based on ESPN's FPI):
Cal (79%)
@WSU (66%)
UW (57%)
Utah (53%)
ND (40%)
@OSU (37%)
ASU (27%)

If you buy those percentages, that gives us two likely-ish wins (>60%), two toss-ups (40 - 60%), and two likely-ish loss (<40%), though I am not sure I buy ND at 40%.  There's a path to 7 (maybe 8) wins in there; beyond is looking like drawing an inside straight.  There is also a nightmare scenario where we lose 6 out of our last 7 games.  I think my previous prediction of 5-7 is now looking a bit pessimistic, but not by much.  I wouldn't revise my prediction beyond 6 wins, though there are very broad confidence intervals.

BC

[BostonCard]

Thought people penciled UW in the win column after they lost opener at home to Montana and then got blown out by Michigan in Game 2.  But maybe I'm mistaken.  Anyway, Stanford can win that game, but it won't be easy, as it might be against an overmatched opponent.

I don't know that we can pencil in any wins, though if we don't beat WSU and Cal, it is hard to see how we would have any chance at a winning season.  Mentally, I put UW into the category of "a team we might be able to get our sixth win against".  We got the win against Oregon contrary to expectations, but OSU looks tougher than expected.  So I am still at five likely wins, with several other teams possible.

Here are our upcoming opponents in descending probability of a win (based on ESPN's FPI):
Cal (79%)
@WSU (66%)
UW (57%)
Utah (53%)
ND (40%)
@OSU (37%)
ASU (27%)

If you buy those percentages, that gives us two likely-ish wins (>60%), two toss-ups (40 - 60%), and two likely-ish loss (<40%), though I am not sure I buy ND at 40%.  There's a path to 7 (maybe 8) wins in there; beyond is looking like drawing an inside straight.  There is also a nightmare scenario where we lose 6 out of our last 7 games.  I think my previous prediction of 5-7 is now looking a bit pessimistic, but not by much.  I wouldn't revise my prediction beyond 6 wins, though there are very broad confidence intervals.

BC