[BostonCard]

I think 5% against Oregon is reasonable.  15% against UCLA and ASU might be a bit pessimistic, but I wouldn't put it much above 20%.  In that case, you get a probability of going winless of 60% (assuming they are independent), so winning one game would be an upside surprise.  Even if you are generous and give us a 1 in 4 chance of winning against UCLA and ASU, you still wind up winless close to 50%.

That being said, ESPN is giving us a 45% chance of winning against UCLA, so maybe I'm too down on the team.

BC

[BostonCard]

I think 5% against Oregon is reasonable.  15% against UCLA and ASU might be a bit pessimistic, but I wouldn't put it much above 20%.  In that case, you get a probability of going winless of 60% (assuming they are independent), so winning one game would be an upside surprise.  Even if you are generous and give us a 1 in 4 chance of winning against UCLA and ASU, you still wind up winless close to 50%.

That being said, ESPN is giving us a 45% chance of winning against UCLA, so maybe I'm too down on the team.

BC