08-23-2021, 11:49 PM
(08-23-2021, 10:41 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(08-23-2021, 08:53 PM)Mick Wrote:(08-23-2021, 12:22 PM)Giants Wrote: I think UZR (ultimate zone reading) is a good method of measuring fielding effectiveness (available at fangraphs).
I recently read an article that suggested the Giants’ big upswing in June/July was due to the MLB crackdown on pitchers loading the ball. The spin rates are down and the Giants have taken advantage.
Fangraphs projects the Giants going 20-18 the rest of the way, on their way to a 100 win season (behind the Dodgers' projected 101 win season). That would be quite a trick. The Giants haven't won fewer than 21 games during any 38 game stretch this season, and there have only been six of those over 86 sets of 38 consecutive games. All the rest have been between 22 and 26 wins for this remarkably consistent team.
Fangraphs also projected the Giants to be 78-84 this year. Joke's on them, the Giants are already 80-44, so FanGraphs were only off by 21 games. Consequently, Fan Graphs call this year's iteration of the Giants the "Most Shocking Contender of the Last 15 Years." Actually, the second most shocking. The 2012 Orioles were projected to win at .414, actual was .574. Giants were projected to win at .471, actual is currently .626.
Reasons for improvement in this article:
https://www.mlb.com/news/how-giants-beca...-contender
Apparently, three of the top four hitting overperformers in 2021 are Giants (Wade, Ruf, Posey), along with six of the top ten (throw in Crawford, Longoria and Duggar). Because the Giants hired three excellent batting coaches and they don't swing at bad pitches. They also hired two superb pitching coaches.
Agree that coaching hires have been great;
agree that Giants have may overperformers to date.
Only caveat: still a month to go. There is time for reversion to the mean (see Posey, Crawford, Belt). The good news about the Giants' depth is that fatigue should be less of a problem - as "the grind" of this season may not be as taxing on the regulars as is typical. We shall see.
What is Posey “mean”. How bout Belt’s. The only one of the three performing over his career numbers is Crawford. The analysis on Posey failed to take into account that the second half of ‘18 and all of ‘19 were injury related. Tough to hit with just your hands.
It’s pitching, not hitting that is the issue. They have a lot of depth 1-8. So if a couple drop others can pick up the slack - Yaz and Dickerson are two examples. There starting pitching has no depth. If Gausman continues to struggle the lack of ability for anyone save Webb to get through 6 will catch up with them.
