[DC 86]

[*]
The Bill James predictor is out of date at this point. W-L record still carries a lot of weight (too much weight) but far less than it did in the past, and I don't think James has recalibrated his model.

Last year Trevor Bauer won the NL Cy with a 5-4 record even though Yu Darvish went 8-3 and Max Fried 7-0. Jacob DeGrom won the previous two NL Cys with 11-8 and 10-9 records.

This is a good point, but I am applying it retroactively to the list of pitchers in the HoF who never won a Cy Young.  The Bill James predictor should be better calibrated for them, and as Mick points out, a lot of them were beaten out in their peak year by a pitcher with more wins.

BC

Ah, I misunderstood. Indeed, Bill James formulated his predictor in the 1980s based on the results of previous Cy Young votes, so the historic overvaluing of wins is perfectly reflected in his model. Only recently has the electorate evolved and made the model more or less obsolete.

[DC 86]

[*]
The Bill James predictor is out of date at this point. W-L record still carries a lot of weight (too much weight) but far less than it did in the past, and I don't think James has recalibrated his model.

Last year Trevor Bauer won the NL Cy with a 5-4 record even though Yu Darvish went 8-3 and Max Fried 7-0. Jacob DeGrom won the previous two NL Cys with 11-8 and 10-9 records.

This is a good point, but I am applying it retroactively to the list of pitchers in the HoF who never won a Cy Young.  The Bill James predictor should be better calibrated for them, and as Mick points out, a lot of them were beaten out in their peak year by a pitcher with more wins.

BC

Ah, I misunderstood. Indeed, Bill James formulated his predictor in the 1980s based on the results of previous Cy Young votes, so the historic overvaluing of wins is perfectly reflected in his model. Only recently has the electorate evolved and made the model more or less obsolete.