[DC 86]

Actually, I think I might put more stock in a 25 year old's recent plate appearances than year old or two year old MLB efforts.  His prior best AAA stat was .266/313/.452 -- and now he's hitting 115 points higher.  Maybe he improved, maybe the training/coaching got better, maybe he benefitted from a change of scenery.  Or maybe not.  We'll find out.  Seems as if you have him at a ceiling of .239.

That last sentence is a deliberately unfair summary of what I said.

A projection is not a ceiling. A projection is a projection, meaning the median projected outcome. His ceiling could be as much as 1-2 standard deviations above his projection, just as his floor may be 1-2 standard deviations below his projection. And over a short period the variance could be even larger.

[DC 86]

Actually, I think I might put more stock in a 25 year old's recent plate appearances than year old or two year old MLB efforts.  His prior best AAA stat was .266/313/.452 -- and now he's hitting 115 points higher.  Maybe he improved, maybe the training/coaching got better, maybe he benefitted from a change of scenery.  Or maybe not.  We'll find out.  Seems as if you have him at a ceiling of .239.

That last sentence is a deliberately unfair summary of what I said.

A projection is not a ceiling. A projection is a projection, meaning the median projected outcome. His ceiling could be as much as 1-2 standard deviations above his projection, just as his floor may be 1-2 standard deviations below his projection. And over a short period the variance could be even larger.