(05-07-2021, 12:09 PM)Mick Wrote:(05-07-2021, 10:05 AM)Papa John Wrote: In 2015, Josh Rosen's QBR was 134.3. Kevin Hogan's was 171.0. No way in hell I bench 5th-year Hogan for first year Rosen.
So why was Rosen the #10 overall pick in the NFL draft and Hogan was the #162 pick in the fifth round?
Good question! But my comparison on Rosen and Hogan was for 2015 only. Would JR have been drafted in the first round after his freshman year (if he had been eligible)?
More data points on Rosen. All-conference honors:
2015: none (1st-team QB Falk, 2nd-team QB Hogan)
2016: none (as BC pointed out, JR was injured for much of 2016, although his stats when he did play were hardly spectacular)
2017: 2nd-team QB (1st-team Darnold)
In terms of conference honors, Rosen was no more decorated than Hogan. Unless you look at preseason awards. Athlon picked Rosen for first-team Pac-12 QB before the 2016 season and fourth-team before the 2017 season. Was Rosen better than Burns, Chryst and Costello? Sure, but I would point out that his UCLA teams lost to all three (Burns in 2016, Chryst/Burns/Costello in 2017).
Maybe Rosen was drafted on criteria other than results. I've looked up several different data-driven FBS QB ratings for 2017 and JR isn't in the top 10 for any of them.
I don't follow the NFL--and certainly not the draft--closely enough, so I'll let someone more informed explain why Arizona drafted JR #10. Maybe other rating services like PFF, to which I do not subscribe, loved him.
If there's one thing people have learned in Berkeley, it's that you can't put "Cal football" and "Rose Bowl" in the same sentence. The words just don't fit. You'd be better off linking "covered wagons" with "Mars travel." (Bruce Jenkins, Cal '70, SF Chronicle, Nov. 11, 2017)