[Farm93]

EDIT:  Pfizer indicates up to 35 days (30 in shipping container, 5 in refrigerator after that) storage without a super freezer.

I am virtually certain the vast majority of the unused vaccine is sitting in "super freezers" at places like Stanford, UCSF, etc. Heck, even San Mateo County has one (brand new). That's not the problem. It is the glacially (pun intended) slow delivery into arms that we should be rightly concerned about.

Essentially we have America's biggest pharmaceutical launch being handled by the military, the state governments, county health officials, health care providers, and pharmacies.  And they are doing this launch without a lot of prep or existing lines of communication.

What could possibly go wrong?

It is certainly reasonable in my mind that almost every entity in the supply chain would want to keep doses in reserve because many will recognize that if they ship one dose then they should have another one in reserve for that second dose order 3-4 weeks later.   If every step in the chain has a similar logic, and few are working to reduce that desire for safety stock, then many of the first ~30 million doses will just sit in the supply chain.

That's not a scandal in my mind, that is just logical human behavior.   And something many of the world's be companies combat relentlessly to become profitable, reliable and successful.   That just doesn't describe most of the entities in this mix.

That's pretty much why I never banked on the promised dates and added my own buffer to the expectations.  There are a lot of entities in this process and many of them are not known for distributing stuff to consumers.   Supply chain is this week's problem, but there will be others along the way.

If I am vaccinated prior to the start of the 2021 Stanford Football season, I will be thrilled.

[Farm93]

EDIT:  Pfizer indicates up to 35 days (30 in shipping container, 5 in refrigerator after that) storage without a super freezer.

I am virtually certain the vast majority of the unused vaccine is sitting in "super freezers" at places like Stanford, UCSF, etc. Heck, even San Mateo County has one (brand new). That's not the problem. It is the glacially (pun intended) slow delivery into arms that we should be rightly concerned about.

Essentially we have America's biggest pharmaceutical launch being handled by the military, the state governments, county health officials, health care providers, and pharmacies.  And they are doing this launch without a lot of prep or existing lines of communication.

What could possibly go wrong?

It is certainly reasonable in my mind that almost every entity in the supply chain would want to keep doses in reserve because many will recognize that if they ship one dose then they should have another one in reserve for that second dose order 3-4 weeks later.   If every step in the chain has a similar logic, and few are working to reduce that desire for safety stock, then many of the first ~30 million doses will just sit in the supply chain.

That's not a scandal in my mind, that is just logical human behavior.   And something many of the world's be companies combat relentlessly to become profitable, reliable and successful.   That just doesn't describe most of the entities in this mix.

That's pretty much why I never banked on the promised dates and added my own buffer to the expectations.  There are a lot of entities in this process and many of them are not known for distributing stuff to consumers.   Supply chain is this week's problem, but there will be others along the way.

If I am vaccinated prior to the start of the 2021 Stanford Football season, I will be thrilled.