12-29-2020, 06:02 PM
(12-29-2020, 02:28 PM)M T Wrote: No, Teejers, Safeway is getting the same vaccines that CVS and Walgreens and Stanford Hospital are getting.
(I suggest you be careful with statements like that. Someone might think you were speaking a fact.)
In terms of hospitalization and age, the CDC recently published this graph which I think is misleading.
The problem is that the graph doesn't show percentage of patients or of beds, but instead shows a ratio of those in an age group that have been hospitalized.
To get to what you are looking for, who is in the hospital now, by age group, I took the prevalence of hospitalizations 12/12-12/19, applied the population numbers, getting the number hospitalized, and their percentage of those hospitalized.
Age Prevalence Population Patients PerCent
0-4 1.1 19,736,000 217 0.6%
5-17 0.6 54,056,000 324 0.9%
18-29 5.5 52,361,000 1,780 4.7%
30-39 3.4 43,375,000 2,472 6.6%
40-49 8.1 39,929,000 3,234 8.6%
50-64 15.1 62,110,000 9,379 24.9%
65-74 25.5 31,487,000 8,029 21.3%
75-84 51.2 15,407,000 7,888 21.0%
85+ 72.9 5,893,000 4,296 11.4%
(Note that the age groups are not equal sized. In particular 50-64 is largest.)
This gives a per cent of hospital admissions. Length of stay is not given, which will influence how many are in beds on any one day.
So, vaccinations through phases 1a and 1b (estimated 73M shots, up to mid-February for federal distribution of the first round) will only account for 32% of hospital admissions currently.
(The CDC does not have good numbers for the number of cases, hospitalizations, or deaths of HCW, but they are getting the shots first.)
32% isn't a bad pressure relief start.
Plus, I think LTCFs are driving numbers more than we are led to believe, at least in Santa Clara County (which is all I really follow with any regularity).
P.S. I'm returning to a question I had earlier regarding tabulating Covid deaths. The below link from North Dakota clearly states that the total deaths (1276) includes (i) cases where Covid is primary cause of death, and (ii) cases where Covid was not primary cause of death. The latter is only about 1/6th the total (212 of 1276), but it's not insignificant. So I don't understand those who say that Covid deaths are only those where the death certificate lists Covid as primary cause of death. The ND site clearly refutes this . . . doesn't it?
https://www.health.nd.gov/diseases-condi...irus-cases
BTW, much-maligned North Dakota's curve appears to be moving in the right direction. Good for them.
https://www.health.nd.gov/diseases-condi...irus-cases

![[Image: lab-confirmed-hospitalizations-weekly.gif]](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/12282020/images/lab-confirmed-hospitalizations-weekly.gif)