I agree with you MT that there is a bad case scenario -- what if Moderna and Pfizer remain the only 2 approved vaccines for a while, and what if both of them hit production snafus. Already, there are reports that Confusion Arises as States Learn They're Receiving Fewer Doses of Pfizer's COVID-19 Vaccine Than Expected. (CBS News)
But for now, I'm in the more optimistic camp, like BC, in large part, for the reasons he lists (warmer weather in the spring, first vaccines going to the most vulnerable and healthcare workers will drive down deaths and transmission, and previously-infected could add 10-20% immune to the vaccinated totals, hopefully reducing R0 along the way).
But to me, there are two big uncertainties driving how Q2-Q3 of 2021 will play out:
1) Will vaccine manufacturers be able to hit their promised numbers?
2) And this is probably be the biggest wildcard -- will the DNA vaccines (Johnson&Johnsno & Astra Zeneca) vaccines be safe, effective and approved? I've read these vaccines are easier to manufacture, so their production can ramp up very quickly. PLus, the first trial with the J&J vaccine required only 1 shot, so 100M doses of that could protect 100M people. I read the J&J vaccine could receive an EUA in Feb/Mar.
This is why I urge my local school district to plan for 2 scenarios. In case everything goes well, we could have teachers and a large chunk of adults vaccinated in spring, and I'd want school districts in Santa Clara County to be prepared to re-start in-person instruction in the March-April timeframe, at least for elementary school students.
On the other hand, if the next 2 vaccine candidates are not approved, and if there are production snafus, yeah, this thing could take a while.
But at the least, I think places like school districts should plan for and be prepared for multiple scenarios, including, possibly, a very good case scenario.*
But for now, I'm in the more optimistic camp, like BC, in large part, for the reasons he lists (warmer weather in the spring, first vaccines going to the most vulnerable and healthcare workers will drive down deaths and transmission, and previously-infected could add 10-20% immune to the vaccinated totals, hopefully reducing R0 along the way).
But to me, there are two big uncertainties driving how Q2-Q3 of 2021 will play out:
1) Will vaccine manufacturers be able to hit their promised numbers?
2) And this is probably be the biggest wildcard -- will the DNA vaccines (Johnson&Johnsno & Astra Zeneca) vaccines be safe, effective and approved? I've read these vaccines are easier to manufacture, so their production can ramp up very quickly. PLus, the first trial with the J&J vaccine required only 1 shot, so 100M doses of that could protect 100M people. I read the J&J vaccine could receive an EUA in Feb/Mar.
This is why I urge my local school district to plan for 2 scenarios. In case everything goes well, we could have teachers and a large chunk of adults vaccinated in spring, and I'd want school districts in Santa Clara County to be prepared to re-start in-person instruction in the March-April timeframe, at least for elementary school students.
On the other hand, if the next 2 vaccine candidates are not approved, and if there are production snafus, yeah, this thing could take a while.
But at the least, I think places like school districts should plan for and be prepared for multiple scenarios, including, possibly, a very good case scenario.*