12-17-2020, 05:53 PM
I am more optimistic, though as with all things COVID, "All predictions wrong, or your money back" (h/t to Gregg Easterbrook for that quote).
First off, even if we did nothing different, I would think that spring will bring a decrease in transmissions. We don't have a ton of data on seasonality, but it looks like COVID-19 thrives most in weather that sends people indoors, the heat of the summer in the South and the cold of the fall/winter. Spring should bring better weather, and consequently a bit of a respite from the relentlessness of infections.
Second, although we won't vaccinate enough to get herd immunity, we will be able to vaccinate the most vulnerable. I think elderly living at most care homes (heretofore responsible for 40% of deaths) will become vaccinated, so that should drastically reduce mortality. Then if we prioritize appropriately, we will be vaccinating those at highest risk of dying of COVID (elderly and those with risk factors), further driving down mortality, and then the essential workers at highest risk of getting (and transmitting) COVID-19. So, even though we will only have 1/3 of people vaccinate, it will disproportionately drive down infections and, especially deaths.
Third, at this estimates are that 10 - 20% of Americans have survived COVID-19 and should have some degree of immunity. Add that to the people who have been vaccinated and we may be approaching 50% immunity by late spring. Again, not enough to reach herd immunity, but hopefully enough to drive down R.
I have no way of knowing for certain where we will be in six months. I doubt the pandemic will be effectively over, or that we would even be in "great shapeæ, but we will probably be better than we are now, and hopefully we will be in good shape. I think it might be possible to get down to 100,000 new cases a day (decline of >50%), 30,000 patients hospitalized (decline of >70%), and 300 deaths per day (decline of almost 90%). Even if it is more like 150,000 cases, 50,000 hospitalized, and 500 deaths, it is a much better environment in which to have athletics competition than this one.
BC
First off, even if we did nothing different, I would think that spring will bring a decrease in transmissions. We don't have a ton of data on seasonality, but it looks like COVID-19 thrives most in weather that sends people indoors, the heat of the summer in the South and the cold of the fall/winter. Spring should bring better weather, and consequently a bit of a respite from the relentlessness of infections.
Second, although we won't vaccinate enough to get herd immunity, we will be able to vaccinate the most vulnerable. I think elderly living at most care homes (heretofore responsible for 40% of deaths) will become vaccinated, so that should drastically reduce mortality. Then if we prioritize appropriately, we will be vaccinating those at highest risk of dying of COVID (elderly and those with risk factors), further driving down mortality, and then the essential workers at highest risk of getting (and transmitting) COVID-19. So, even though we will only have 1/3 of people vaccinate, it will disproportionately drive down infections and, especially deaths.
Third, at this estimates are that 10 - 20% of Americans have survived COVID-19 and should have some degree of immunity. Add that to the people who have been vaccinated and we may be approaching 50% immunity by late spring. Again, not enough to reach herd immunity, but hopefully enough to drive down R.
I have no way of knowing for certain where we will be in six months. I doubt the pandemic will be effectively over, or that we would even be in "great shapeæ, but we will probably be better than we are now, and hopefully we will be in good shape. I think it might be possible to get down to 100,000 new cases a day (decline of >50%), 30,000 patients hospitalized (decline of >70%), and 300 deaths per day (decline of almost 90%). Even if it is more like 150,000 cases, 50,000 hospitalized, and 500 deaths, it is a much better environment in which to have athletics competition than this one.
BC