12-16-2020, 07:52 PM
You are correct that the pandemic won't be done by spring. But I am hoping that a combination of warmer weather reducing spread, combined with vaccination of the most vulnerable, will drive the mortality rate down substantially. We are currently averaging a little over 200,000 new cases a day. Could better weather get it back to 50,000? Hospitalizations are over 110,000; can we bring it down to 30,000 (where it was in late September before the latest surge)? We are currently seeing 3,000 deaths a day. Could that be brought down to fewer than 500?
I would much rather collegiate athletics resume under those circumstances (and maybe we won't get there in three months) than continue under the current conditions. Moreover, by April, the vaccine may already be distributed to essential workers, and, depending on what gets approved between now and then, you might start seeing it be made available to the majority of the population. Under those circumstances, the NCAA could get all athletes vaccinated without special pleading. Even if not everyone gets the second dose, immunity will start to take hold about 10 days after the first one.
Given that there are strong interests in continuing athletics, I would rather it be safer, even if it can't be made completely safe. And while I can't be sure of the future, April seems safer than December/January. Since there is one game left (plus some bowls), I might let football finish up, put basketball on ice for three months, and look to restart when the pandemic is looking better. And if I am wrong, and, god forbid, things are as bad or worse in the spring, then you can decide then.
BC
I would much rather collegiate athletics resume under those circumstances (and maybe we won't get there in three months) than continue under the current conditions. Moreover, by April, the vaccine may already be distributed to essential workers, and, depending on what gets approved between now and then, you might start seeing it be made available to the majority of the population. Under those circumstances, the NCAA could get all athletes vaccinated without special pleading. Even if not everyone gets the second dose, immunity will start to take hold about 10 days after the first one.
Given that there are strong interests in continuing athletics, I would rather it be safer, even if it can't be made completely safe. And while I can't be sure of the future, April seems safer than December/January. Since there is one game left (plus some bowls), I might let football finish up, put basketball on ice for three months, and look to restart when the pandemic is looking better. And if I am wrong, and, god forbid, things are as bad or worse in the spring, then you can decide then.
BC