[BostonCard]

This is going to be rank speculation on my part as the virus is very capricious, and anyone who makes any predictions about the course of the pandemic is almost assured of being wrong, but I suspect we won't see a vaccine ID card, but not for reasons you think.



My guess is that a combination of better weather, emerging immunity, and vaccination of the most vulnerable individuals will mean that we will be able to open up uniformly this spring.  The pandemic won't be over, but it will be improving quickly such that we might see an order of magnitude fewer deaths per day by April and a drastic reduction in hospitalizations.



At that point, activities will be based on individual risk tolerance, so we won't go back to normal, but we will be able to get most industries opened up again.  The only things I could see require some sort of proof of vaccination would be something like cruise ships, where there is a possibility of an outbreak.



BC

Easy proof of vaccination would certainly make a lot of people feel better about large indoor audiences (theatre and cinema), and airplane travel. 



In both cases, you'd present vaccination proof at the door or before entering the plane.

I suppose it depends on what you mean about "a lot of people".  Although vaccines aren't 100% and some people have a reduced response to vaccines, most people who have been vaccinated already probably feel pretty decent about gathering, regardless of whether others have been vaccinated or not.  Obviously, people are going to be at a lot lower risk if everyone around them is vaccinated too, but your average person isn't going to look at it that way.  They will say "I've got the vaccine; I won't get sick even if I'm exposed".  Those who are not vaccinated will be "protected" by not allowing unvaccinated people into the gathering, but of course, that will mean they can't attend either.  So, those who are worried can voluntarily refrain from attending.

Now, on a county or state level, there might be much more of a reason to restrict gatherings that include unvaccinated people in order to prevent outbreaks than on an individual level.  But that gets back to my original point, which is that the pandemic will be moving more quickly (in the right direction) than policy-makers so that by the time someone can roll something like this out, the pandemic will probably be at a place where it is not necessary.

BC

[BostonCard]

This is going to be rank speculation on my part as the virus is very capricious, and anyone who makes any predictions about the course of the pandemic is almost assured of being wrong, but I suspect we won't see a vaccine ID card, but not for reasons you think.



My guess is that a combination of better weather, emerging immunity, and vaccination of the most vulnerable individuals will mean that we will be able to open up uniformly this spring.  The pandemic won't be over, but it will be improving quickly such that we might see an order of magnitude fewer deaths per day by April and a drastic reduction in hospitalizations.



At that point, activities will be based on individual risk tolerance, so we won't go back to normal, but we will be able to get most industries opened up again.  The only things I could see require some sort of proof of vaccination would be something like cruise ships, where there is a possibility of an outbreak.



BC

Easy proof of vaccination would certainly make a lot of people feel better about large indoor audiences (theatre and cinema), and airplane travel. 



In both cases, you'd present vaccination proof at the door or before entering the plane.

I suppose it depends on what you mean about "a lot of people".  Although vaccines aren't 100% and some people have a reduced response to vaccines, most people who have been vaccinated already probably feel pretty decent about gathering, regardless of whether others have been vaccinated or not.  Obviously, people are going to be at a lot lower risk if everyone around them is vaccinated too, but your average person isn't going to look at it that way.  They will say "I've got the vaccine; I won't get sick even if I'm exposed".  Those who are not vaccinated will be "protected" by not allowing unvaccinated people into the gathering, but of course, that will mean they can't attend either.  So, those who are worried can voluntarily refrain from attending.

Now, on a county or state level, there might be much more of a reason to restrict gatherings that include unvaccinated people in order to prevent outbreaks than on an individual level.  But that gets back to my original point, which is that the pandemic will be moving more quickly (in the right direction) than policy-makers so that by the time someone can roll something like this out, the pandemic will probably be at a place where it is not necessary.

BC