[M T]

The CDC ACIP recommendations of vaccine distribution is available.
It notes there are 21 million health care workers and only 3 million people in LTCF.  Those are the only two groups that the ACIP mentions for their recommendations.  Considering that there were announced plans to have 40 million first doses out within 4 weeks (which would cover those 24 million and 16 million more), I find that woefully short of giving much guidance.

The Pfizer vaccine requires two doses, so 40 million doesn't even cover the 24 million people in groups 1a & 1b. It only gives them the first dose. Not sure how long after that they are supposed to get the second dose.

The Operation Warp Speed (OWS) officials have indicated (as recently as Dec. 2) they expect to DELIVER 40 million doses to the states (etc) in December.  In January, another 60 million doses are expected to be delivered to the states (etc).  And another 100 million doses in February.   (Dr. Slaoui referred to as vaccines for 20 million people in December, 30 million in January, 50 million in February, for a total 100 million people by end of February.  I think that is confusing as NO person will get the full vaccine in December because the second dose is 3 weeks after the first.)

If you're thinking OWS are delivering two doses for each person in December, that is not the case.  They have made it very clear that the second dose of Pfizer will be delivered 21 days after the first dose is administered.  They even claimed that if you got your first dose in February but were in NY 21 days later, your second dose would be delivered there.   (I hope that database is by dose, not name:  "Jurisdiction: California; Mfgr: Pfizer; Dose: 13234435",  not "John Q. NonCitizen, 111 Main St, 555-555-1212, JohnQ@sample.com"  which will be on a card.  How they get in contact with you is a whole 'nother question.)

So, the 40 million first-doses delivered in December will cover the first doses for 24 million HCW+LTCF  and some 16 million more people.  All those people will be getting second doses delivered in January, from a later OWS shipment.

As pointed out by Dabigv, the last mile is less certain as to its ability to quickly deal with this much vaccine.   If OWS is able to ship 4M doses to California in December, it doesn't mean that California will be able to administer it to 4M people.  Especially if California is focused on some particular order of delivery and creates a shortage by not getting that order established, the individuals identified and then notified, and the appointments (or walk-ins) set up.


Do I really think 40M doses will ship in December?  No.  Even if they do ship weekly (as they described), including Christmas, there are at most 4 deliveries of Pfizer and 3 deliveries of Moderna.  I think that maybe it will ship by January 5.  I expect any particular dose will spend one day in transit to the state and 2 days in transit to the point at which it will be administered.  If these aren't walk in shots, there will be another day or two to get the person in to get the shot.
That's assuming that the administration site knows who should get the doses in what order, have their contact info, and can contact them.

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Oh damn, I just realized all this is going to be another opportunity for phishing!   "Hi, this is John from the California COVID Vaccination team.  Congratulations, we've got a shot for you.  Please confirm your SSN"

[M T]

The CDC ACIP recommendations of vaccine distribution is available.
It notes there are 21 million health care workers and only 3 million people in LTCF.  Those are the only two groups that the ACIP mentions for their recommendations.  Considering that there were announced plans to have 40 million first doses out within 4 weeks (which would cover those 24 million and 16 million more), I find that woefully short of giving much guidance.

The Pfizer vaccine requires two doses, so 40 million doesn't even cover the 24 million people in groups 1a & 1b. It only gives them the first dose. Not sure how long after that they are supposed to get the second dose.

The Operation Warp Speed (OWS) officials have indicated (as recently as Dec. 2) they expect to DELIVER 40 million doses to the states (etc) in December.  In January, another 60 million doses are expected to be delivered to the states (etc).  And another 100 million doses in February.   (Dr. Slaoui referred to as vaccines for 20 million people in December, 30 million in January, 50 million in February, for a total 100 million people by end of February.  I think that is confusing as NO person will get the full vaccine in December because the second dose is 3 weeks after the first.)

If you're thinking OWS are delivering two doses for each person in December, that is not the case.  They have made it very clear that the second dose of Pfizer will be delivered 21 days after the first dose is administered.  They even claimed that if you got your first dose in February but were in NY 21 days later, your second dose would be delivered there.   (I hope that database is by dose, not name:  "Jurisdiction: California; Mfgr: Pfizer; Dose: 13234435",  not "John Q. NonCitizen, 111 Main St, 555-555-1212, JohnQ@sample.com"  which will be on a card.  How they get in contact with you is a whole 'nother question.)

So, the 40 million first-doses delivered in December will cover the first doses for 24 million HCW+LTCF  and some 16 million more people.  All those people will be getting second doses delivered in January, from a later OWS shipment.

As pointed out by Dabigv, the last mile is less certain as to its ability to quickly deal with this much vaccine.   If OWS is able to ship 4M doses to California in December, it doesn't mean that California will be able to administer it to 4M people.  Especially if California is focused on some particular order of delivery and creates a shortage by not getting that order established, the individuals identified and then notified, and the appointments (or walk-ins) set up.


Do I really think 40M doses will ship in December?  No.  Even if they do ship weekly (as they described), including Christmas, there are at most 4 deliveries of Pfizer and 3 deliveries of Moderna.  I think that maybe it will ship by January 5.  I expect any particular dose will spend one day in transit to the state and 2 days in transit to the point at which it will be administered.  If these aren't walk in shots, there will be another day or two to get the person in to get the shot.
That's assuming that the administration site knows who should get the doses in what order, have their contact info, and can contact them.

---

Oh damn, I just realized all this is going to be another opportunity for phishing!   "Hi, this is John from the California COVID Vaccination team.  Congratulations, we've got a shot for you.  Please confirm your SSN"