12-04-2020, 08:29 AM
There were 217,000 new infections reported in U.S. yesterday, including a gobsmacking 21,000 in CA. And even at 7am PST, already over 4,000 new ones in CA just today. This is gonna be as bad or worse here than France and Belgium last month.
The question I have is how much will the - what has been typical - 1.7% CFR increase as hospitals are overwhelmed and ICU capacity evaporates. Also am curious to know how much greater the over expected death rate grows for all people, even those who die with non-Covid maladies, as hospitals are overwhelmed.
The IHME projections show close to 500,000 dead by March, but this is from Covid. We really should be looking at the total lives lost above expected to get an accurate count of deaths caused by pandemic.
I'm also very much curious about long-term Covid is having on survivors and numbers around that. We have a clear idea what the known CFR is, and can use the 1.7% number, but what is the corresponding one for lives that suck now as a result of having Covid? I assume greater than 1.7%, but I have seen zero data on it. My suspicion is it is gonna be like 5% at least, but there is also a long-term reality we can't possibly know yet. Those with lung scarring who were on vents, might never heal, or it will take a longer time to know. But there are other known complications and unknown ones too. Would be nice to have some insight into the post infection complication rate.
The question I have is how much will the - what has been typical - 1.7% CFR increase as hospitals are overwhelmed and ICU capacity evaporates. Also am curious to know how much greater the over expected death rate grows for all people, even those who die with non-Covid maladies, as hospitals are overwhelmed.
The IHME projections show close to 500,000 dead by March, but this is from Covid. We really should be looking at the total lives lost above expected to get an accurate count of deaths caused by pandemic.
I'm also very much curious about long-term Covid is having on survivors and numbers around that. We have a clear idea what the known CFR is, and can use the 1.7% number, but what is the corresponding one for lives that suck now as a result of having Covid? I assume greater than 1.7%, but I have seen zero data on it. My suspicion is it is gonna be like 5% at least, but there is also a long-term reality we can't possibly know yet. Those with lung scarring who were on vents, might never heal, or it will take a longer time to know. But there are other known complications and unknown ones too. Would be nice to have some insight into the post infection complication rate.